CINCINNATI — The Bearcats return home on Saturday after a 1-1 Top 25 road trip in the Big 12. It’s a battle between two teams in the bottom half of the league when Oklahoma State comes to town for a 2 p.m. ET tip-off.
The Bearcats’ four-game winning streak came to a close against Texas Tech, but they won’t have another week off to prepare for this latest opponent. Cincinnati enters the game 15-13, while OSU is 17-11.
The Bearcats enter the game ranked 47th nationally on KenPom, while OSU is 72nd overall. ESPN’s Matchup predictor gives the Bearcats a 78.6% chance to win.
“I was very disappointed in our defensive rebounding and the 19 points second chance points, I think, tell the tale of the game, so that’s probably the biggest difference in the game,” Wes Miller said on Tuesday. “(Christian) Anderson obviously has a big time night, and we were trying to make it difficult on him, but I thought what, what hurt us more than some of the shot making was was when we did get two to the ball and they hit the middle of the floor and were able to score without any weak side rotation from us so disappointed in some of that.
“This is the Big 12 playing on the roads difficult. We just won a big game a couple of days ago. I liked our competitive spirit and fight, even though it didn’t go our way. And now we’ve got to respond and get ready for a home game on Saturday.”
Cincinnati is 3-5 against the Cowboys since the start of the 1949-50 season.
All team statistics are from conference play unless otherwise noted.
Cincinnati’s at-large NCAA Tournament hopes now fully rely on a deep run in the Big 12 Tournament to post the needed 21 wins to have any real hope of getting in. JThom Analytics gives them a 70% chance to make the dance with 21 wins.
If they lose to OSU on Saturday, Cincinnati will have to win the league to go dancing, just like they’ve had to at the end of every regular season of the Wes Miller era. It’s a massive long shot overall, but still something to gun for out of this team (JThom analytics gives them a 1% chance at hitting 21 wins and 4% chance at 20).
UC has to beat OSU to have a decent chance at avoiding the first round of the Big 12 Tournament, which they are currently slated to play in as the 10 seed. Good thing this is a much easier matchup at home compared to No. 16 Texas Tech on the road, especially if OSU’s second-best player can’t play.
Center Parsa Fallah (14.7 points, six rebounds) went down with an injury in the final moments of OSU’s win over West Virginia this week, and he could miss the contest. It would be a massive blow to one of their big weaknesses already.
UC just got whooped on the boards, but now faces one of the worst rebounding teams in the Big 12 (-3.9 rebounding differential per game). If they don’t have the 6-9 Fallah, UC should rake in extra scoring chances from the glass in this game.
That’s a brutal setup for the worst defense in the Big 12. OSU is outside the top 110 nationally in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency and is giving up a league-worst 84.2 points per game in Big 12 play. Offensively, OSU could hurt UC and hang around if its consistent defense this season slips a little more, as it did against TTU.
OSU can strike from outside, hitting eight threes per game (seventh) and 34.4% overall (fourth) while also taking 22.8 free throws per game (third). Lead scorer Anthony Roy (16.8 points, 3.9 rebounds) is posting a solid 54.4% effective field goal rate this season on a team-high 12.1 shots per game.
Slow him down, especially with Fallah’s services pending, and there are just not any other efficient scoring options for the Cowboys to work through. OSU likely won’t be taking close to 23 free throws in this game like they average (UC opponents take 16.1 FTs per game). Add in leaky turnover issues for OSU (11.1 per game, 13th), and there are plenty of ways for Cincinnati’s size and defense to win this on the margins.
UC may also get Shon Abaev back for a rotation that only used eight players against TTU, including just six minutes for Tyler McKinley. Abaev’s return is much needed for the overall stamina of the team entering the final two weeks in the Big 12.
Check out the contest at 2 p.m. ET Saturday on CBS Sports Network.
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