China has moved early to lock in soybean supplies from Brazil for September and October, sidelining US exporters from what is traditionally their most lucrative selling period.
The shift underscores Beijing’s growing trade reliance on South America and comes amid renewed political and commercial tensions with Washington.
According to market analysis from Brazil’s Safras & Mercado, traders reported Chinese purchases of roughly 8 million tonnes of soybeans for September and 4 million tonnes for October, about half of the country’s projected demand for the two months. All volumes are sourced from South America, with Brazil capturing the lion’s share.
The move effectively shortens the US “window” for soybean shipments to China, which typically runs from September to January before the Brazilian harvest arrives.
Last year, China imported 105 million tonnes of soybeans, 22.13 million of them from the US, illustrating how pivotal this early-season slot has been for American farmers.
The decision to buy more soybeans from South America comes as Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures hover near five-year lows, with reduced Chinese buying expected to keep prices under pressure.
When asked about the soybean purchases and their impact on US producers, Liu Pengyu, a spokesperson for the Chinese embassy in Washington, did not directly address the trade volumes.
Instead, he said Bejing hoped “the US side will work with China to implement the important common understandings reached by our heads of state” and called for dialogue “on the basis of equality, respect and mutual benefit” to promote sustainable bilateral relations.
The Chinese embassy in Brasilia did not respond to requests for comment.
On Monday, US President Donald Trump publicly urged Beijing to quadruple its soybean purchases from the United States, a dramatic call just days before a tariff truce between the two countries was set to expire.
Posting on social media, Trump claimed China was concerned about soybean shortages and said he expected “quick” orders from Beijing. The remarks briefly sent Chicago futures higher, but market watchers quickly questioned whether such a deal was realistic.
Meeting the request would require China to source most of its soybean imports from the United States, an unprecedented shift that would displace established Brazilian volumes.
It remains unclear whether increased Chinese agricultural purchases would be a condition for a lasting trade deal between Beijing and Washington.
In the meantime, China has not booked any US soybeans for the fourth quarter, and some feed manufacturers are reportedly testing alternative suppliers, including Argentina, to secure cheaper South American protein meals.
In Brazil, the news of both the early Chinese commitments and Trump’s gambit was met with quiet confidence among exporters.
In a statement, the Brazilian Soybean Producers Association said on Monday that it was monitoring the impact of a potential trade deal on crops, but that the combination of strong September and October sales could be an opportunity to further cement Brazil’s role as China’s primary supplier.
As the US risks losing ground in the Chinese market, Brazil and China are also working on longer-term trade integration.
On Sunday, the Brazilian newspaper Folha de S. Paulo reported that officials from both countries were said to be drafting a bilateral protocol to recognise environmental certifications and traceability systems for key agricultural exports, particularly beef and soybeans.
The plan would align methodologies for measuring emissions, land use and animal welfare, allowing Chinese authorities to formally recognise Brazilian sustainability seals such as “Carbon Neutral Meat” and “Low Carbon Soy”. Measures include integrated digital tracking, QR codes linking to environmental data and shared databases.
The protocol aims to smooth trade flows, add value to certified products and pre-empt future non-tariff barriers.
A Chinese technical delegation is expected in Brazil later this year to inspect systems on the ground before finalising the deal.
The talks come against a backdrop of US tariff hikes on Brazilian goods and growing political friction between Washington and Brasília, even as China expands its list of authorised Brazilian exporters in other sectors, from coffee to processed foods. — SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST
