The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is reportedly investigating suspicious oil futures trades placed ahead of key announcements by the Trump administration related to the Iran conflict.
According to a Bloomberg report published Wednesday, the probe centers on trading activity across CME Group’s NYMEX and the Intercontinental Exchange’s futures platforms.
As part of the investigation, the regulator is requesting “Tag 50” identity data from exchanges — a dataset commonly used for auditing and regulatory compliance — to help identify the traders involved.
The inquiry comes amid growing scrutiny over potential insider trading, including in prediction markets.
Bloomberg noted that the CFTC is examining at least two instances within a two-week span where oil trading volumes surged shortly before major policy announcements tied to Iran.
The first occurred on March 23, when billions of dollars in futures contracts were traded roughly 15 minutes before US President Donald Trump delayed planned strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure.
The second took place on April 7, when Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran.
These trading spikes were linked to a drop in oil prices and a simultaneous rise in equity markets.
“There’s enormous appetite to pursue cases like this,” said Brian Young, a partner at Jones Day and former director of the CFTC’s enforcement division.
“After all, prices at the pump closely correlate to oil futures contracts, so we’re talking about American pocketbooks at stake here.”
The CFTC is also stepping up efforts to crack down on insider trading in prediction markets
On March 31, the agency’s current enforcement director, David Miller, said regulators are closely monitoring such activity and warned that those found engaging in insider trading will face enforcement action.
“There’s a myth in mainstream media and social media that insider trading doesn’t apply in the prediction markets … That is wrong.”
Growing pressure from Democratic lawmakers has pushed prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket to roll out new rules aimed at curbing insider trading.
In parallel, the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026 was introduced in late March, targeting efforts to prevent government officials from exploiting insider information in these markets.
