Central African Republic President Faustin-Archange Touadéra is seeking a controversial third term this Sunday, following a decade in office, a change in constitution and the forging of closer ties to Russia.
Alongside their president, Centrafricains are set to elect national, regional and municipal lawmakers.
Touadéra, who oversaw a referendum in July 2023 that scrapped the presidential term limit, allowing him to seek a third term, is the favourite to win of the seven candidates running.
The 68-year-old, a mathematician with an academic background and a former prime minister, came to power in 2016 during a civil war.
Analysts say his lead was aided by civil servants campaigning for him and the significant advantage in terms of resources he enjoys over his opponents.
“The president will win because he has much more financial capacity than the opponents,” said Charles Bouessel of International Crisis Group.
Central African Republic (CAR) has endured repeated cycles of unrest since gaining its independence from France in 1960, leaving most of its 5.5 million people in poverty.
Russian ties
Touadéra’s government has been repeatedly accused of turning to Russia for security in exchange for access to gold and other resources.
In 2018, CAR became the first country in West and Central Africa to bring in Russia’s Wagner mercenaries, a move later mirrored by Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger.
But Russian security has come at a cost. In 2023, the Africa Center for Strategic Studies think tank said Russia had made more than $2.5 billion in African gold through its mercenary missions in CAR, Mali and Sudan.
Touadéra has also launched two cryptocurrency ventures to attract investors, which the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime (GI-TOC) warned could expose state assets to foreign criminal networks.
He is also seeking investors for a long-discussed railway project linking CAR to Cameroon and Sudan, and has vowed to boost revenue from mining under a new code adopted in 2024. However, illegal mining and criminality remain rampant in CAR. China last month issued a rare warning to its citizens on the risks of kidnapping, extortion and slavery in the sector.
Touadéra’s economic initiatives have brought little relief to a country where two-thirds of people live in extreme poverty, according to 2023 World Bank data.
“We are always promised jobs and schools, but many young people remain unemployed,” said Clarisse, a university student in Bangui.
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Fragile gains
In 2022, CAR became the first African nation – and second globally, after El Salvador – to adopt bitcoin as legal tender.
The president has also been touting his infrastructure investment, including the signing of a deal last week to launch Starlink, Elon Musk’s company SpaceX’s satellite-based internet service, in CAR.
He claims too to have improved security across the country.
“When I came to power in 2016, you couldn’t travel 10km without being harassed. There was no security, no roads, nothing. We have worked so hard to achieve this result today,” he told supporters this month at a rally in Bangui.
Despite his close ties with Russia, Touadéra has also signalled a renewed interest in Western partnerships, telling the Financial Times in September that he would welcome any country willing to develop CAR’s lithium, uranium and gold reserves.
His supporters see him as a peacemaker, after he struck a controversial 2019 peace accord with 14 armed groups involved in the civil war, essentially bringing warlords into the government in return for the disarming of their militias.
This reduced violence in some regions and helped economic growth rise to around 3 percent, up from 1.9 percent in 2024, according to International Monetary Fund data.
Touadéra says peace deals are proof of progress as CAR readies for election
But analysts warn the gains are fragile: rebels have not fully disarmed, reintegration is incomplete and incursions by combatants from neighbouring Sudan fuel insecurity in the east.
Human Rights Watch has also accused Russian mercenaries of executions and torture. In November, the United Nations Security Council extended the mandate of its peacekeeping mission.
“There are a lot of ingredients that could lead to a renewed cycle of violence,” said Nathalia Dukhan, Central Africa analyst for GI-TOC. Government and allied forces “have been using fear and terror” to maintain control, she added.
Security remains a top concern for voters. Jean-Claude Kolego, a trader in Bangui, said: “What we want are roads and peace.”
