A sharp contraction in open interest tied to ADA futures contracts signals lack of speculative force from the derivative market to support price recovery.
Cardano, the eleventh largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization is down 2.65% on February 18th, to currently exchange hands at $0.27. The ongoing geopolitical tension between Iran and the U.S. triggered a risk-off sentiment among broader markets, including cryptocurrencies. However, the Cardano price faces additional selling pressure amid the decline trend in futures contracts and total volume locked. Will the coin price lose $0.2 floor?
The cryptocurrency sector was down 1% on Wednesday, sending the total valuation into fluctuation around $2.3 trillion. Market participants adjusted positions in light of news saying there was a high chance, of about 90%, of military moves by the United States and Israel targeting Iran in the coming weeks.
Bitcoin’s value fell to $66,000, and Ethereum’s value fell to $1,960. Most prominent alternative coins followed this trend, such as Cardano, which fell by 2.65% and reached $0.274.
Alongside the retreat in price, futures contracts for ADA experienced a significant drop in the number of outstanding positions. Data from CoinGlass shows a decline from around $842 million in mid-January to around $417 million recently, which is a 50% decrease.
The early sharp decline was due to widespread closures of optimistic trades, but the continued reduction in size has been linked to participants reducing their scale of borrowed funds in the face of unstable prices and declining optimism.
Furthermore, the aggregate funds committed to Cardon’s network has trended downwards steadily from reaching a peak of $686 million in December 2024 and currently hovers around $134 million – a loss of 83%. This corresponds to large-outflows from decentralized finance platforms as well as the lowered engagement throughout the system, which is connected to large position wipeouts and decreased trader interest.
Diminished activity on the blockchain and in trading arenas could hamper any prolonged upturn in the asset’s worth.valuation.
On February 14th, the Cardano price gave a bullish breakout from the resistance trendline of a falling wedge pattern in the daily chart. The chart setup is characterized by two converging trendlines that offer dynamic resistance and support to price.
Since October 2025, the wedge pattern carried a steady downward trend in Cardano before the recent breakout signals a change in market dynamic. However, the buyers struggle to offer follow up amid current uncertainty in the broader crypto market.
If ADA dives below the trendline again, the selling pressure would accelerate and push the price to multi-year low of $0.24, followed by a dip to $0.2.
However, the momentum indicator ADA at a high of 45% indicates strength in bearish momentum, but also the possibility of sellers hitting exhaustion.
If the price manages to hold wedge breakout, the resulting rally could chase $0.42, followed by $0.48.
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