Fragmented open interest historically weakens altcoin rallies, similar to Solana’s recent decline.
Cardano’s open interest has experienced a dramatic collapse. The figure plummeted from $1.6 billion to just $334 million.
Major market players have closed their ADA positions aggressively, according to crypto analyst Joao Wedson. However, Wedson points out a critical detail that very few are noticing about this decline.
The landscape of Cardano’s open interest has fundamentally changed.
Wedson highlighted that back in 2023, Binance controlled over 80% of ADA open interest. Meanwhile, 17 other exchanges collectively held less than 20%.
Fast forward to 2026, and the picture looks completely different. Binance now holds only 22% of open interest, the analyst noted. Gateio has emerged as the new leader with 31% market dominance.
According to Wedson, this structural shift carries significant implications. He emphasized that this change matters more than most people realize.
ADA (Cardano) Open Interest has collapsed from $1.6B to $334M. But there’s a detail very few are noticing.
Major players have closed their ADA positions aggressively.
The key insight lies in where open interest is now concentrated.
Back in 2023, Binance controlled over 80% of… pic.twitter.com/N9R8TgfRhC
— Joao Wedson (@joao_wedson) February 8, 2026
Wedson drew a clear parallel with Solana to illustrate the pattern. When SOL rallied from $20 to $200 between late 2023 and 2024, something notable happened. Binance’s open interest dominance increased by 10%, reaching 52%.
Since 2024, that dominance has declined again. The analyst observed that Solana’s price momentum has clearly weakened correspondingly.
The analyst noted that the pattern is consistent across major altcoins. When open interest becomes fragmented and Binance’s share drops, altcoins tend to lose upside strength. Cardano is currently experiencing this exact scenario, according to Wedson.
ADA is currently trading around $0.2645 after declining sharply from the $0.35-$0.40 range. Recent candles show consolidation near the $0.26-$0.27 support zone.
The RSI sits at 33.20, approaching oversold territory. This suggests potential short-term buying interest could emerge. However, bearish momentum remains dominant for now.
The MACD line sits below the signal line, confirming ongoing bearish momentum. Yet the histogram bars are narrowing. This indicates the downtrend may be slowing down.
Trading volume spiked during the recent drop. Strong selling pressure drove the decline.
Wedson explained that Binance tends to fuel strong altcoin rallies. However, this only happens when leverage is concentrated and competition is limited.
The analyst described the current situation as “Alpha” information. He emphasized that the fragmentation of Cardano’s open interest suggests reduced potential for explosive upside moves.
Support levels sit at $0.25-$0.26, while resistance hovers around $0.28-$0.30. A bounce may occur if buying interest increases. However, confirmation would require RSI recovery or a MACD crossover.
The shift from Binance to Gateio dominance represents more than just numbers, according to Wedson. It reflects a changing market structure that historically correlates with weakened price momentum.
