According to crypto.news, Cardano has continued its downward trajectory for the fourth consecutive week, falling nearly 31% from its monthly high and 63% below its peak this year. The 11th-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization has seen its market cap shrink to $15.4 billion from $40.8 billion in January.
Several indicators suggest that Cardano’s decline could persist throughout the year.
Total Value Locked (TVL) Decline: The total value locked on the Cardano network has steadily decreased, dropping from $904.91 million in December last year to $251 million at present. A declining TVL often signals reduced user engagement and suggests capital is steadily leaving the ecosystem.
Network Activity Weakening: App revenue and active addresses on the network have also seen significant declines. Data from DeFiLlama shows that weekly revenue from DeFi protocols on Cardano has fallen nearly 65% from October levels. Meanwhile, active addresses have plummeted roughly 92% from December last year. Falling revenue and user activity indicate waning network engagement, which may drive investors toward alternative projects with stronger fundamentals.
Reduced Derivatives Positions: Even derivatives traders appear cautious. CoinGlass reports that Cardano futures open interest stands at $710 million, down sharply from $1.95 billion in mid-September.
Technical Analysis: On the daily chart, Cardano’s technical outlook has turned bearish. The price has broken below the $0.51–$0.545 support zone, which had previously provided a reliable floor during periods of consolidation this year. Losing this level may signal that further downside momentum is building.
At the time of writing, Cardano is trading well below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which recently formed a death cross—a technical signal often considered strongly bearish by traders.
As a result, Cardano could potentially slide to $0.30, a level that has historically acted as a key support during several sell-offs in 2024. This floor sits roughly 28% below the current price of $0.42 and is where bulls previously stepped in to halt further declines.
On the upside, a bullish scenario could emerge if ADA manages to climb back above $0.54, aligning with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Surpassing this mark may pave the way for a short-term recovery.
