It’s been over a year since the election cycle kicked off a bull run.
Even with all the FUD, macro uncertainty, and back-to-back flash crashes, most altcoins have managed to hold onto their election-rally gains, meaning long-term holders are still sitting on unrealized profits.
Cardano [ADA], though, hasn’t shared that resilience. After a red Q3 and Q4, ADA has slid back to its early election levels, wiping out 100% of its yearly gains and returning to a key technical area near the $0.30 support.
Notably, that weakness is clearly reflected in its market cap.
According to CoinMarketCap, ADA has shed $25 billion in 2025, translating to a 64% drop, pulling its valuation down to $14 billion.
For comparison, even Dogecoin [DOGE] has managed to cap its drawdown at 50%.
Simply put, ADA has underperformed even a memecoin.
Against this backdrop, and with the market-cap gap between Cardano and Bitcoin Cash [BCH] narrowing by the day, the question becomes: How long before ADA loses its 10th spot in the crypto rankings to BCH?
ADA’s technical weakness is now spilling over into fundamentals.
Despite recent network upgrades, user engagement has been flat. According to DeFiLlama, active addresses on Cardano, which jumped to 93k during the election, have slid back below 25k, keeping FOMO muted.
At the same time, analysts are pointing to Sui [SUI], whose TVL is 4.5x Cardano’s despite having roughly one-third of ADA’s market cap. This discrepancy signals that Cardano may be overvalued relative to its peers.
Notably, smart money is starting to feel the squeeze too.
Analysts point out that whales have offloaded 120 million ADA in the past two months, coinciding with ADA’s roughly 50% drop from its $0.80 peak. This also highlights Cardano’s struggle to hold $0.80 as support.
Taken together, weak FOMO, falling TVL, technical weakness, and shaky fundamentals all indicate that Cardano overvalues itself. In this setup, it’s likely just a matter of time before ADA loses its 10th spot.
