Therefore, while gold prices may rise, a strong breakout like before is unlikely.
Domestic gold prices have been rising for two consecutive weeks. As of September 6, SJC gold bars hit a new record of VND135.4 million. Gold rings also approached VND131 million per tael.
The Statistics Office under the Ministry of Finance (MOF) reported the gold price index in August increased by 1.2 percent compared to the previous month and 48.62 percent year-on-year. On average, in the first eight months of this year, the gold price index increased by 40.25 percent year-on-year.
Financial expert Phan Dung Khanh told VietNamNet that domestic gold prices are affected by various factors, including the trend of global gold prices reaching new highs, exchange rate fluctuations, and investors’ expectations.
He explained that global gold prices have continuously reached new highs over the past two years, although the pace of increase has slowed in the last three months. The upward trend of the local exchange rate also contributes to rising gold prices. Additionally, investor sentiment, coupled with other markets like stocks also reaching new highs, has led to short-term capital flowing into gold as a safe haven.
However, according to him, despite various government’s policies, the gap between domestic and global gold prices remains very high, over VND20 million per tael, which suggests possible speculative elements.
Khanh noted that the pace of gold price increase has slowed significantly compared to last year. In 2024, domestic gold prices ranged from over VND60 million to VND90 million per tael, up about 50 percent. But in 2025, the increase is lower. Last year, gold prices frequently set new highs within days, whereas this year, the most recent peak was back in April.
“Medium- and long-term capital flows have shifted to other investment channels such as stocks and real estate due to faster potential returns and better profit performance. Therefore, while gold prices may rise, a strong breakout like before is unlikely,” he said.
Moreover, the global trend of capital flowing into gold has also slowed, which affects the price momentum of the precious metal. Geopolitical tensions such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict have somewhat cooled down, making safe-haven investments like gold less attractive.
In the long term, the expert believes global capital flow into gold is weakening due to easing geopolitical tensions and strong economic recovery in the US and other countries, including Vietnam, which is ramping up investment in technology and manufacturing. When capital flows into production and business sectors like stocks, gold is no longer the optimal choice.
Selling for profit now or waiting for price hike?
Khanh warned the risks are high if buying gold at this moment because the pace of gold price increase is no longer as strong as last year. Furthermore, the domestic-international price gap is too large.
“If buying gold for 5-10 year hoarding, the risk is not high. However, in the short term, if global prices don’t rise and the domestic-international gap narrows, those who buy gold now could suffer heavy losses,” Khanh said.
He suggested that short-term investors should consider selling to secure profits and avoid risks from strong market volatility.
Associate Prof Nguyen Huu Huan (University of Economics, HCMC) also warned that when the domestic-international gold price gap is too wide, investors should not buy now.
Currently, domestic gold prices heavily depend on “policy risk.” He believes the government will not let this large price gap persist. Fundamental solutions to stabilize the market will soon be implemented.
Huan noted that once the central bank intervenes in the gold market with specific policies, domestic gold prices will cool down, and investors buying at current prices will suffer significant losses.
