Strong demand. Theoretically, about $70 billion in capital inflows based on the 2025 recovery trend.
Both corporate treasuries and ETF buyers, but primarily the former, due to their long-term conviction.
Despite the prevailing weak sentiment, Ethereum [ETH] benefited massively from institutional inflows. Especially from U.S investors.
During the recovery from Q2, for example, U.S Spot ETH ETFs attracted $11 billion in inflows between April and August.
ETH’s price tripled from $1,700 to nearly $5k during that period. The massive institutional demand was from the nine ETF issuers, including BlackRock and Fidelity.
Now, as of November, the outflows have reached $1.53 billion, dragging ETH to $ 2,800. However, the strong recovery earlier in the year showed how crucial institutional demand is to its value.
In light of the renewed momentum from staking, perhaps ETF inflows will rebound again to chase the extra 3% yield.
Which begs the question – How many ETFs are needed to push ETH’s price above $10k or to $15k in the next few months?
The number of ETFs doesn’t matter; the level of demand or inflows is the most crucial. In fact, ETH treasury firms, especially BitMine Immersion, contributed immensely to 2025’s rebound.
That being said, it’s worth pointing out that ETF buyers are distinct from most ETH treasury firms. The former includes even retail and hedge funds chasing basis trade yields that can drop the asset at any slight market weakness.
On the contrary, ETH treasury firms like BitMine are long-term holders and acquire even more during major corrections. Their conviction? The ETH supercycle outlook and its underlying role in the incoming stablecoin, tokenization, and AI boom.
In fact, corporate treasuries now rival ETFs as each controls 5.2% of ETH’s supply (Each holds about 6.3 million ETH ).
In short, stronger institutional inflows from both ETFs and treasury firms could boost the value of ETH, regardless of the number of ETF issuers or treasury players.
For perspective, over $40 billion flowed into ETH markets between April and August, as shown by the realized cap (red).
Theoretically, if it took $40 billion in capital inflows to achieve a 3x move to nearly $5k, it would require about $70 billion in net inflows to drive another 5x move – Lifting ETH from $3k to $15k.
Worth noting though that real markets operate non-linearly, and several factors are at play. That being said, the market has been pessimistic about ETH hitting $15k in 2026, with only 4% chance at press time.
