JPMorgan’s undervaluation call aligns with MVRV, ETF inflows, and shrinking reserves. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s rebound potential hinges on $104K support, with $120K as the next key target.
Since mid-2025, institutional confidence in Bitcoin [BTC] grew as volatility fell to near 30%, the lowest annualized level ever recorded for the asset.
JPMorgan recently emphasized that BTC remains undervalued when compared to gold, citing its evolving role as a macro hedge rather than a speculative tool.
Supporting this, the MVRV Ratio stood at 2.1, far below overheated levels near 4. In fact, Exchange Reserves were shrinking while ETF inflows stayed steady, reflecting structural demand.
Therefore, both on-chain signals and institutional perspectives suggested Bitcoin’s fair value lay above its current market level.
Bitcoin traded around $108,450, at press time, rebounding from the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at $104.7K – a zone that historically acted as strong support.
Naturally, a bounce here could unlock gains toward $112K and $120K-$123K.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index sat near 37, indicating weakening downside pressure and conditions edging toward oversold.
However, a failure to hold $104K could lead to a correction with $100K as the next key defense. Therefore, the $104K-$108K range will dictate Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory.
Derivatives data showed cooling Futures Volumes, as the Bubble Map signaled easing speculative activity.
Reduced leverage often precedes stabilization, since liquidation risk falls when futures trading slows.
On top of that, calmer derivatives markets can create healthier ground for sustained rallies — even if they delay short-term fireworks. Institutional players often accumulate in such periods, favoring efficiency over volatility.
Bitcoin’s Network Value to Transaction Ratio dropped by more than 23% to 23.7, as of writing, marking a significant decline.
This shift means the network’s transferred value is improving relative to its market capitalization, which historically supports more sustainable price growth.
Having said that, the ratio must remain subdued to preserve confidence. Elevated readings have often preceded overheated valuations and corrective phases.
JPMorgan’s undervaluation thesis aligned with on-chain improvements and technical resilience, reinforcing Bitcoin’s potential for renewed strength.
If the $104K retracement level continues to act as a base, the path toward $112K and $120K remains achievable.
Cooling Futures activity and a lower NVT Ratio provide additional reasons for optimism.
