ETF inflows have dropped by 80%, yet nearly 97% of the total Bitcoin supply remains profitable.
Amid the growing shift in momentum, Bitcoin long-term holders have begun selling as the price touched $118,000 over the past few days.
Similarly, On-chain data shows a drop of 52,000 BTC in long-term supply, a sign of shifting investor positioning.
Notably, this has raised questions about whether Bitcoin can still reach the projected peak of $149,679.
Bitcoin came under pressure recently as long-term holders started reducing their positions.
Analyst Axel Adler Jr, using CryptoQuant metrics, reported that their total supply dropped by 52,000 BTC at the $118,000 level.
This major shift comes after months of steady accumulation. The drop suggests that holders who kept their assets for a long time are now beginning to take profits.
A similar pattern emerged between late 2024 and early 2025, as Bitcoin’s price rose from $65,000 to over $100,000.
Notably, long-term holders also began selling as prices moved higher at the time.
The long-term holder (LTH) net position change chart shows this pattern clearly. After major accumulation points, periods of distribution followed, each time after the price crossed a key level.
The recent sell-off matches this trend, as the LTH supply moved from above 15.5 million BTC down to 15.3 million BTC.
This kind of distribution often means that experienced holders believe prices are nearing a temporary top.
Whether the current cycle will follow the same path as the past remains to be seen.
It is worth noting that despite the recent selling, some analysts believe the price could still go higher.
In a recent post on X, crypto analyst Ali Martinez noted that Bitcoin’s next top might be around $149,679.
The estimate comes from the CVDD model, which tracks long-term activity and possible cycle peaks.
Ali’s chart showed the market moving into what the model labels the “Accessing Tops” zone.
This is a range where prices have topped out during past cycles. The post included a chart comparing the current phase to past ones, with earlier levels at $119,344 and $101,284.
Notably, while some saw this target as conservative, others questioned if Bitcoin might go further.
For example, a market participant asked why they were so bearish, hinting that some traders were expecting even higher prices. Ali did not give further explanation in the thread.
Meanwhile, the forecast came as Bitcoin hovered near its recent all-time high. The price had recently pulled back slightly after touching the top of a price gap between $115,000 and $123,000.
Alongside the high price levels, inflows into Bitcoin ETFs dropped sharply last week.
According to Glassnode, ETF inflows fell 80%, down to $496 Million. Trade volume in this market also slipped to $18.7 Billion.
Still, most Bitcoin holders are in profit. Glassnode reported that 96.9% of the supply remains above its cost basis.
While fewer coins are moving on-chain, capital still appears to be flowing into Bitcoin. Realized Cap Change rose 6.6%, indicating that buyers remain active.
Other signs point to a cooling phase. The RSI dropped from 74.4 to 51.7, and active addresses and transfer volume also fell.
However, in futures markets, open interest stayed high at $45.6 Billion, and funding rates rose, showing that leveraged traders are still active.
Options data showed a rise in volatility expectations. The skew turned slightly positive, meaning traders were less focused on hedging for downside risk.
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