Bitcoin begins its first sustained rebound in months as geopolitical developments lift global assets.
- Bitcoin has climbed back to $93,000 for the first time in nearly a month, though traders remain cautious about the move’s durability.
- A potential golden cross is forming on the four-hour chart, raising the prospect of further upside momentum.
- Geopolitical developments in Venezuela are expected to be a key focus for risk-asset traders in the days ahead.
- In the US, upcoming labor-market data will be closely watched as expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut this month continue to fade.
- Meanwhile, Bitcoin whales remain net sellers, increasing distribution activity as the new year gets underway.
Bitcoin breakout or drop below $80,000?
Bitcoin is finally offering bulls some relief this week, with BTC price action responding positively to geopolitical developments—but traders are questioning whether the move has staying power.
The debate has intensified as BTC/USD climbed to $93,000 for the first time since Dec. 11.
According to data from TradingView, Bitcoin has risen by as much as 6.6% over the past five days.
“Price is unlikely to recover straight from here,” trader CrypNuevo said in a post on X.
He compared the current market structure to October 2019, suggesting that Bitcoin may continue to target nearby liquidity levels on exchange order books.
“The structure is identical—price first ran liquidity, then swept the lows before rallying,” he added.
“I think we’ll sweep the lows with or without the liquidity run.”
Such a move would imply a drop below $80,000 for the first time since April. On the downside, two gaps in CME Group’s Bitcoin futures market could serve as near-term price targets.
Bitcoin education platform Coin Bureau noted that “two CME gaps remain below current price levels, at $90,500–$91,600 and $88,200–$88,800.”
The latest data from monitoring resource CoinGlass, meanwhile, puts 24-hour crypto short liquidations at $250 million. Liquidity was piled high into the weekly close, with $93,700 bulls’ next upside target.
Commenting on data from one of its proprietary trading tools, Keith Alan, co-founder of trading platform Material Indicators, said more notable price action could lie ahead.
A large “wall” of sell orders that had previously capped price near $100,000 has now disappeared.
“Now the fun begins,” Alan told his followers on X, sharing a chart that showed increased buying activity from smaller Bitcoin whales.
Bitcoin golden cross nears confirmation
While a 5% rebound in BTC price may seem modest by crypto market standards, the broader trend implications could be significant.
Analysis of Bitcoin’s simple (SMA) and exponential (EMA) moving averages suggests growing bullish momentum as price holds above the $90,000 level.
One bullish signal currently unfolding is the 50-period simple moving average (SMA) crossing above the 200-period SMA on the four-day chart. This so-called “golden cross” points to strengthening short-term buying momentum and would effectively reverse the “death cross” that formed in mid-October.
On the daily chart, a golden cross is still far from reality after its own death cross hit a month later.
Taking a longer-term view, trader SuperBro pointed out that another key set of trendlines is already turning bullish: the weekly 100-period simple and exponential moving averages.
In previous Bitcoin bear markets, the 100-week EMA crossing below the 100-week SMA marked the beginning of major downside. This cycle, however, appears to be diverging from that historical pattern.
“Historically, the weekly 100 EMA and SMA cross deep in the bear market. In every prior cycle, Bitcoin fell more than 50% to the cycle low within weeks,” SuperBro wrote on X.
“This is an unprecedented bullish deviation from prior cycles.”
As Cointelegraph has reported, Bitcoin’s performance in 2025 has fueled growing speculation that the traditional four-year BTC price cycle may no longer apply.
Venezuela drives market focus
This week, attention across risk assets and commodities is firmly on geopolitical developments, as markets digest the implications of a U.S. military move involving Venezuela.
The unexpected news broke over the weekend outside traditional financial market hours, leaving crypto markets to provide the only real-time reaction.
Since Friday, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization has climbed 5%, reclaiming the $3 trillion level.
More notable, however, is Bitcoin’s renewed alignment with traditional safe-haven assets like gold and silver.
At the time of writing on Monday, XAU/USD was up 2%, edging closer to December’s all-time highs of $4,450 per ounce.
Meanwhile, concerns over a potential U.S. intervention in Venezuela’s oil and gas sector have pressured global energy prices, while the U.S. dollar approaches its strongest levels in nearly a month.
On Sunday, trading publication The Kobeissi Letter forecast broad market movement as traditional finance traders returned.
“Energy prices are DROPPING amid a major escalation in geopolitical tensions. This should tell you all you need to know,” the report noted on X.
Kobeissi advised readers to continue monitoring gold and silver closely.
A potential bullish factor for Bitcoin comes from Venezuela’s BTC reserves, a topic that has sparked growing debate on social media.
Although largely speculative, the country is believed to have accumulated a substantial Bitcoin stockpile as a means of circumventing U.S. sanctions, with estimates ranging between 600,000 and 660,000 BTC—roughly $55–60 billion at current prices.
“Prior to 2026, Venezuela’s official on-chain holdings were minimal—for example, around 240 BTC from seizures or mining reported on some trackers,” crypto analyst MartyParty noted in an X post on the topic.
“The $60B figure refers specifically to this alleged off-the-books reserve built to bypass sanctions.”
Fed likely to hold rates in January
The first full trading week of 2026 features key U.S. macroeconomic data releases that could influence risk-asset sentiment.
Attention will be on employment trends, as the labor market continues to show signs of stress.
These developments carry implications for the Federal Reserve ahead of its Jan. 28 policy meeting. While risk assets would benefit from another rate cut, current market sentiment suggests such a move is unlikely.
According to the latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the probability of a modest 0.25% rate cut stands at just 17.2%.
Loose financial conditions support stocks, but risks loom
Despite a cautious macro backdrop, analysts expect already loose financial conditions to continue supporting equities—at least through the first half of 2026.
“I anticipate conditions favoring the bull market to persist into the start of 2026, including a growing economy and ample liquidity supporting loose financial conditions,” trading resource Mosaic Asset Company wrote in the latest edition of its newsletter, The Market Mosaic.
Mosaic cautioned, however, that rising inflation could make the second half of 2026 very different. “I believe a major transition will be looming for the stock market, and that a rising money supply will eventually force tighter monetary policy in the world’s major economies,” it added.
As Cointelegraph has reported, the composition of the Federal Reserve continues to shift toward officials who favor additional rate cuts, aligning with the approach endorsed by President Donald Trump.
Bitcoin whales hit the “sell” button
Bitcoin’s rebound from below $90,000 may face resistance from crypto market forces. Data from on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant shows that large-volume traders are already moving to lock in profits and reduce BTC exposure.
During the week beginning Dec. 29, Binance saw monthly highs in net inflows, with Bitcoin deposits alone approaching $1.5 billion.
“Such sizable transfers of BTC and ETH from private wallets to an exchange typically indicate one of two intentions: preparation for selling or the use of these assets as collateral in derivatives markets,” CryptoOnchain noted in a Quicktake blog post.
CryptoQuant noted that buying power has not kept pace with the recent inflows, with stablecoin net flows remaining “essentially flat.”
“Most of this activity reflected internal transfers—primarily USDT moving between the ERC-20 and TRC-20 networks—rather than fresh capital entering the exchange,” CryptoOnchain added.
A subsequent QuickTake post highlighted active whale selling across exchanges.
The two-week moving average of the exchange whale ratio—which measures the share of inflows from the ten largest whale addresses—is now at its highest level since March 2025.
“Historically, such patterns precede selling pressure and increased supply,” CryptoOnchain noted.
