The report details how Bitcoin broke out of a prolonged low-volatility range after briefly falling to $62,000, followed by a sharp rebound toward the $68,000 level. While spot prices have recovered much of the decline, derivatives markets continue to signal caution.
Key findings:
“The $70,000 psychological level has thwarted Bitcoin bulls for much of this month, keeping the world’s oldest and largest cryptocurrency on course for its fifth consecutive monthly decline,” said Han Tan, Chief market analyst at Bybit Learn. “Still, as crypto’s fundamentals remain supportive, the current confidence crisis may ultimately create space for a strong bullish narrative to emerge. Flows could reverse once macro clarity improves, particularly around Federal Reserve policy or U.S. trade policy.”
The report shows that despite the rebound in spot prices, derivatives markets remain defensively positioned. Short-dated options continue to reflect demand for protection against renewed downside, and volatility levels during the recovery remain notably lower than those seen at the height of the sell-off.
Broader indicators reinforce the cautious outlook. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net outflows for four consecutive months, placing Bitcoin on track for its fifth straight monthly decline, a pattern last observed during the bear market following the 2018 ICO cycle. Ethereum shows a similar setup, with spot Ether ETFs nearing a fourth month of net outflows since their launch in July 2024. Weak retail sentiment and declining leverage further underscore the lack of conviction behind the recent price recovery.
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