Bitcoin slipped below $99,000 on Tuesday, breaking through a key macro indicator and reigniting debate over whether the market has turned bearish.
According to Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, Bitcoin fell under its 365-day moving average (MA) — a level he described as critical.
“It was the final confirmation of the 2022 bear market,” Moreno wrote on X, warning that “the price needs to move back above it quickly.”
Coinbase data shows Bitcoin briefly touched $98,900, marking its lowest point in months before rebounding slightly to around $101,800 at the time of writing.
A Potential Breakdown Point?
The 365-day moving average measures Bitcoin’s average price over the past year and is a key indicator used to assess long-term trend direction.
Analysts view it as one of the most significant metrics for gauging market sentiment — and when Bitcoin drops below it, many interpret it as a strong bearish signal.
Bitcoin’s latest dip below the 365-day moving average (MA) isn’t the first time it’s happened this year. According to data shared by crypto analyst Decode, BTC briefly fell beneath the same level back in April.
“Routine Cleanse”
Bitcoin’s drop on Tuesday has “officially marked a technical bear market,” as prices declined more than 20% from the $126,000 all-time high reached in early October, Bitrue research analyst Andri Fauzan Adziima told Cointelegraph.
However, Adziima emphasized that this is only the fourth correction in the 2025 bull cycle — calling it a “routine cleanse,” not the start of a prolonged downturn. He pointed to historical data showing that 20% drawdowns during bull markets have often been followed by rebounds of around 40% within 60 days.
“For this to truly signal a bear market for Bitcoin, we believe the $100,000 threshold would need to be decisively broken, long before such a scenario takes hold,” said Tom Cohen, head of investments and trading at quantitative asset manager Algoz Technology.
“As long as that $100,000 support holds, there’s just as much chance we’re setting up for a Santa Claus rally,” Cohen added.
“Much of that of course is dependent on macro events and what President Trump has up his sleeve in the coming weeks and of course the US Rate Decision in December.”
