Analysts suggest the current market dip is a controlled deleveraging rather than panic.
Bitcoin BTC$106,803.77 slid under $107,000 in Friday’s Asian session, extending a slow drift lower as macro uncertainty and liquidity stress kept traders cautious across crypto markets.
“The rebound on Sunday and Monday did not develop, and the 50-day moving average acted as local resistance,” noted Alex Kuptsikevich, FxPro chief market analyst, in an email. “The market is again testing the strength of 3-month support near current levels. Such persistence from the bears suggests that the next stage will be a test of the 200-day average, which passes through $3.5 trillion.”
“The market broke above this line in May; touching it at the end of July triggered strong buying,” Kuptsikevich said, giving cues on levels to monitor.
The market’s recovery from last week’s liquidation shock appears to have fizzled out, with a bounce earlier in the week getting reversed and major tokens drifting lower each day.
Ether ETH$3,821.57 traded around $3,895, while BNB, Solana, and XRP were down between 5% and 7% — each giving back most of their post-crash bounce. DOGE$0.1823 and Cardano’s ADA are down over 20% week-to-date amid a lack of speculative fervor.
The tone in risk markets soured overnight as traders rotated back to stablecoins, avoiding bitcoin and smaller tokens ahead of key Federal Reserve and geopolitical catalysts.
“Altcoins are under pressure as liquidity continues to rotate back into Bitcoin and stablecoins amid risk-off sentiment,” said Wenny C., COO at SynFutures, in a message to CoinDesk, adding that thinner order books have amplified volatility across secondary markets.
Despite the red screens, analysts say the pullback looks more like a controlled deleveraging than panic. Exchange open interest has dropped to midyear lows, and ETF inflows remain steady, suggesting that long-term capital is sitting tight.
“This latest dip reflects declining speculative appetite after last week’s macro data,” said Wenny, noting that “nothing structural has really changed.”
Nassar Achkar, chief strategy officer at CoinW, said leverage flushes tend to set up cleaner bases.
“Resilient ETF inflows and whale accumulation are stabilizing markets. The path to a sustained rebound will depend on how quickly this underlying capital converts into fresh risk-taking,” Achkar told CoinDesk.
The focus now shifts to the Federal Reserve’s October FOMC meeting, where traders will look for strong dovish talk after Chair Jerome Powell hinted last week that quantitative tightening could soon end.
Futures imply a 65% chance of a 25-basis-point cut, which would extend risk support into year-end if confirmed.
Outside crypto, gold briefly hit a fresh record before retreating, while the yen strengthened on haven bids after renewed trade jitters between the U.S. and China. The standoff has injected volatility across commodities and equities, dragging Asian stocks to their lowest level in two weeks.
Still, some see opportunity in the turbulence. Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes called the drawdown a “buying window,” while K33 Research said reduced leverage leaves “room for spot BTC positions to rebuild.”
The current reset mirrors past cycle pauses, where leverage bled out before new capital rotated back in. Whether that rotation comes before or after the next Fed signal will likely define the rest of October.
