The BTC/USD market is currently in a sensitive phase as the price consolidates around the liquidity zone and sits just above a key Demand zone. The short-term structure remains bearish, but signs of dip-buying are emerging as price approaches the 121k area.
Based on the 1H chart — combined with Volume Profile, Supply & Demand zones, and liquidity flow analysis — below are four possible price scenarios for the upcoming sessions, each with confirmation signals and actionable trading strategies:
🟩 Scenario 1 – Liquidity Sweep + Pullback to POC (Highest Probability ~45%)
🔹 Price Action:
Price continues to sweep slightly below the Liquidity Zone (around 121,700 – 121,300) to grab buy-side liquidity.
After the sweep, a long lower wick or bullish engulfing candle may appear — signaling recovery.
Price bounces back toward the POC zone (123,100 – 123,300).
Selling pressure then returns, causing a retest of the 122,000 area or lower.
🔹 Confirmation Signals:
Strong volume spike at the liquidity low.
Mild bullish divergence on RSI or OBV.
Candle closes above 122,200.
🔹 Trade Setup:
Short-term Buy: around 121,300 – 121,500
Take Profit: 123,100 – 123,300
Stop Loss: below 121,100
After reaching the PoC, consider flipping short if a clear rejection appears.
🟥 Scenario 2 – Breakdown of Demand → Continuation of Downtrend (~30%)
🔹 Price Action:
Price loses the Demand zone (121,200 – 121,300) completely.
A full-bodied H1 candle closes below 121,000 with strong volume.
Sellers take control, pushing price lower toward 120,400 – 119,800 (4H support zone).
🔹 Confirmation Signals:
No strong bullish reaction at Demand.
Heavy selling volume (large red candles).
Retests of 121,200 are rejected.
🔹 Trade Setup:
Sell Breakout: when H1 closes below 121,000
TP1: 120,400
TP2: 119,800
SL: 121,600
🟦 Scenario 3 – Reclaim POC & Retest Supply Zone (~15%)
🔹 Price Action:
Price bounces strongly from the Liquidity Zone and breaks above the POC at 123,300.
Retests the POC zone as a new support.
Continues rallying toward the Supply zone (123,900 – 124,200).
Two possible outcomes:
Strong rejection: price turns back down.
Clean breakout: confirms short-term trend reversal.
🔹 Confirmation Signals:
H1 candle closes firmly above 123,400.
Volume increases consistently during the breakout.
RSI breaks its previous high.
🔹 Trade Setup:
Buy Breakout: above 123,400
TP: 124,200 – 124,500
SL: below 122,800
🟨 Scenario 4 – Sideways Range Between Liquidity & POC (~10%)
🔹 Price Action:
Price consolidates between 121,800 – 123,200, unable to break either side.
Volume gradually decreases as the market waits for a catalyst (e.g., CPI data, macro news).
A mini balance range forms before the next breakout.
🔹 Confirmation Signals:
Small-bodied candles with long wicks and declining volume.
Market Profile tightens around 122,500.
RSI hovers near the 50 level.
🔹 Trade Setup:
Scalp Range Trading:
Buy near 121,900 – 122,000
Sell near 123,200 – 123,300
Target small profits (80-120 USD range)
🔥 Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading and investing in cryptocurrencies involve significant risk; please do your own research and manage your capital responsibly.
