Bitcoin has been trading in a strong bullish cycle, recently touching highs above $124,000, driven by institutional inflows, favorable macro sentiment, and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. However, the market is now showing early signs of exhaustion, with prices struggling to maintain momentum above the $118,000-$120,000 resistance zone.
From a technical perspective, the 50-day moving average currently sits near $107,000, acting as the first major support level. A decisive break below it could open the door to a deeper retracement toward the psychological $100,000 level, which also aligns with a key historical demand zone.
The RSI on the daily chart is entering overbought territory, suggesting that a short-term pullback may be healthy for the market. Meanwhile, MACD momentum is flattening, indicating that bulls may be losing steam after an aggressive rally.
Fundamentally, Bitcoin remains in a strong long-term uptrend, but short-term risks cannot be ignored. Regulatory headlines, macroeconomic shocks, or a failure to hold technical support could accelerate a correction. Many analysts, including Arthur Hayes, have mentioned the possibility of a drop to $100K, not as a collapse but as a potential accumulation phase before another leg higher.
Key Levels to Watch:
*Support: $107,000 – $100,000
*Resistance: $120,000 – $124,500
*Breakout Target: Above $125,000 could trigger a run toward $135,000+
*Breakdown Target: Below $100,000 could extend to $95,000
While the macro trend remains bullish, a short-term dip toward $100K is a realistic scenario if momentum continues to fade. Long-term holders may see such a move as an opportunity, while short-term traders should watch for a confirmed break of $107K to position accordingly.
