Gold’s record-breaking rally inadvertently put pressure on Bitcoin’s allure, but analysts say historical data shows BTC eventually starts a catch-up rally.
Bitcoin’s (BTC) relative performance against gold has weakened sharply, but several analysts argue that this setup remains a long-term investment opportunity for BTC.
Key takeaways:
* The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio fell to 18.5 ounces per BTC, its lowest since November 2023.
* Analysts say these rare “asymmetric setups” often precede capital rotations back into Bitcoin.
The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio measures how many ounces of gold are required to buy one Bitcoin. The ratio slid to around 18.5 on Wednesday, dropping to its lowest value since November 2023. The move reflects gold pushing to new all-time highs of $4,888 while Bitcoin struggles to hold above $90,000.
Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards highlighted the scale of gold’s move, noting that 100-years of gold bull markets have averaged more than 150% gains. If that pattern repeats, gold prices could move well above current levels to around $12,000 in 3 to 10 years, extending the near-term pressure on the BTC/gold ratio.
However, crypto analyst Decode suggested the BTC/gold pair may be showing signs of trend exhaustion. With the help of Elliott wave theory, Decode described the ratio as entering the fifth wave of a corrective C-wave, a structure that typically marks the final stage of a downtrend.
In simple terms, it implies that bearish momentum may be closer to completion than continuation, even as investor sentiment turns a bit more negative.
“The ultimate trade here is Bitcoin,” says Bitwise analyst
Bitwise European head of research André Dragosch framed the move as a macroeconomic contrarian signal. Earlier this week, the analyst said that Bitcoin was trading at a steep discount to gold on a relative basis, calling such conditions “very rare” and suggesting that a shift in capital flows could emerge in Q1 2026.
In an X post on Wednesday, Dragosch emphasized that gold’s surge is tied to a bigger structural change in the global monetary system, echoing concerns raised by Ray Dalio. As countries reduce reliance on sovereign bonds and increase exposure to hard assets, gold has benefited first.
Dragosch argued that capital tends to rotate sequentially. Gold has attracted capital flows first, while Bitcoin “hasn’t caught a serious bid due to its perceived higher risk.” In that context, gold’s strength may ultimately act as a tailwind rather than a headwind for Bitcoin’s next phase of price expansion.
