Recently, BTC has traded for a large amount of time in ranging environments. These ranges have started with a local range high and then an initial 3-tap accumulation (i.e., a local low and then two sweeps of that low) before making a solid attempt at the range highs. The sweeps of the lows are meant to shake people out and provide fuel to try to break higher. The previous two times, that initial attempt failed and the price was sent lower to put in a second 3-tap accumulation at lower prices.
Will the current price move back down to put in the 3rd tap of the current relatively small accumulation? That is my base case. I believe we will see some lower prices locally to put in the 3rd tap. I think the Bitcoin Swing Trade Indicator (BSTI) will fire off green one more time and then we will then make a run to try to break out of this current massive range (that started last year in November). This current range is fairly small, so it is not worth it to me to sell here to try to buy lower. [Note that if we break out right now, I’ll be very happy to be wrong about the 3rd tap.]
The bigger question is: Will we have enough fuel to durably break out of this range after the 3rd tap of the current accumulation (green line) or are we destined to repeat the pattern of the last two bigger ranges (red line), one of which we are still in? I personally believe we will break out after the smaller range 3rd tap (the green line) based on the larger context of cycle theory, how long we have been in this range, and how the current small range is part of the larger range starting back in November 2024.
It will be interesting to see what happens.
Da_Prof
Note that TV won’t allow publication of a private/unpublished indicator anymore or I would have shown the BSTI, which is now published as invite only. It’s implementation is too complicated to publish openly, so I don’t feel comfortable doing that. If you want access, please DM me on TradingView. Thanks.
