Bitcoin kicked off the final week of October with a strong rebound — but can BTC erase its recent drop from all-time highs?
The cryptocurrency closed the week at $114,500, marking a solid recovery as bulls regained momentum, though many traders remain cautious.
As FOMC week begins, traditional markets are finding relief amid easing US–China tariff tensions.
According to new research, ongoing rate cuts could naturally fuel further Bitcoin upside, with AI models forecasting a move back to $125,000.
So far, “Uptober 2025” looks poised to dodge the label of Bitcoin’s worst October ever.
Meanwhile, short-term holders are back in profit, with more room to climb before reaching key retracement zones.
Bitcoin price faces key hurdles as $115,000 returns
Bitcoin gave bulls a reason to cheer at the weekly close.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows BTC/USD bouncing back to $114,500, successfully reclaiming its 21-week exponential moving average (EMA) in the process.
At the weekend, trader and analyst Rekt Capital flagged that trend line as a key level to hold going forward.
“Bitcoin is enjoying a strong rebound from the Macro Range Low,” he wrote in a post on X Sunday.
“Still just Macro consolidating inside this Monthly Range. In fact, Bitcoin has a chance to turn the September Monthly Highs into new support by the end of the month.”
Despite the strong rebound, Bitcoin’s recovery has yet to convince many traders that the bull market is truly back.
Analyst Roman pointed to lingering weakness on higher time frames, low trading volume, and bearish divergences on Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI).
“Watching for a potential high time frame Head & Shoulders bearish reversal pattern — confirmation comes with a break below the $109,000 neckline,” he told his X followers on Monday, sharing a one-week chart.
“I’ve been very adamant that HTF is exhausted and I’m not expecting higher. We shall see if this turns into a reversal or more consolidation for higher.”
Trading account HTL-NL placed BTC/USD in an expanding triangle, arguing that the overall situation had not changed after the uptick.
Data from monitoring resource CoinGlass showed price slicing through liquidation levels both above and below as volatility returned.
Fed rate cut expected as stocks rally
All eyes are on Wednesday’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision, the highlight of this week’s macroeconomic calendar — and markets are largely optimistic.
With no fresh inflation data available due to the ongoing government shutdown, the Fed has fewer indicators to guide its decision.
Even so, traders remain confident: the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to deliver a 0.25% rate cut, with the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool placing the odds at over 95%.
The only major data release last week — the Consumer Price Index (CPI) — strengthened the bullish case for risk assets, coming in below inflation expectations.
“We have a huge week ahead,” summarized The Kobeissi Letter, highlighting the potential for heightened market volatility as major corporations including Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon prepare to release earnings.
Another major focus is the US–China trade deal. Earlier this month, tariff concerns rattled both crypto and stock markets, but over the weekend, Washington signaled that an agreement is close.
U.S. President Donald Trump is scheduled to meet China’s Xi Jinping on Thursday to finalize discussions.
Stock futures surged to start the week as optimism over the U.S.–China trade progress lifted sentiment, removing a major obstacle to the ongoing bull market.
“The S&P 500 has now gained over $3 trillion in market value since its October 10 low, when President Trump’s 100% China tariff was first announced,” The Kobeissi Letter noted.
“This is the most profitable market of all time.”
AI predicts new all-time highs this month
Staying on the topic of interest rates, network economist Timothy Peterson offered fresh optimism for Bitcoin bulls this week.
According to Peterson, Bitcoin’s price cycles are closely tied to monetary policy, with rate-cutting cycles historically fueling bullish momentum.
“Interest rates are still too high, but QE is coming,” he predicted, referencing quantitative easing — a central bank strategy to inject liquidity into the economy.
Peterson, well known for his research on Bitcoin’s price behavior and Metcalfe’s Law, which links network growth to long-term valuation, added:
“Addresses and Metcalfe’s Law are the foundation of how Bitcoin is valued.”
“This trend is up. There is no bubble. All dips temporary, we eventually go higher.”
Revealing the latest results from an AI-driven simulation of near-term BTC price action, Timothy Peterson identified $115,000 as the new key level to watch.
According to the model, a move toward $125,000 remains a realistic target before the end of October.
Despite Bitcoin’s recent dip — which saw BTC/USD briefly touch $102,000 on Binance — the AI projections have only slightly adjusted lower, maintaining an overall bullish outlook.
‘Uptober’ finally turns green
Despite ongoing volatility, Bitcoin’s 2025 “Uptober” remains on edge — but the tide may be shifting in the bulls’ favor.
At around $115,000, BTC/USD now sits roughly 1% above its October opening price, narrowly steering clear of a red monthly close just when sentiment seemed most uncertain.
Even so, October’s performance this year has been underwhelming — with average monthly gains of around 20% since 2013, according to Cointelegraph.
As a result, traders and analysts are now turning their attention to the possibility of a strong rebound in November.
Trader Daan Crypto Trades anticipates an “interesting” monthly close, noting that market sentiment in September and October has often contradicted actual price movement.
“Over the past four months, Bitcoin’s price has opened and closed within a narrow 8% range,” he shared with his X followers, highlighting the ongoing consolidation.
“A bigger move is coming at some point. I’m assuming the end of 2025 is going to be more volatile than the past few months.”
Data from the Crypto Fear & Greed Index shows that market sentiment remains firmly in neutral territory.
At the same time, the one-month chart suggests a potential milestone ahead — if BTC/USD closes around $115,750, it would mark the highest monthly close in Bitcoin’s history.
Short-term holders return to profit
Among all Bitcoin investors, recent buyers are likely the most relieved this week.
Short-term holders (STHs) — those who purchased within the past six months — are now back above their average cost basis of around $113,000.
According to data from CryptoQuant, the Short-Term Holder Profit Ratio (SOPR) has climbed above 1, marking its highest level since October 8.
CryptoQuant research shows that the overall Bitcoin supply in profit typically reaches around 95% before a local correction occurs.
“These pullbacks often bottom out near the 75% profit threshold,” noted contributor Darkfost in a Quicktake blog post on Sunday. “Specifically, we saw 73% in September 2024, 76% in April 2024, and most recently 81%.”
“Now, the percentage of supply in profit is slowly rising again, currently around 83.6%, a level that can be interpreted as encouraging, suggesting that investors are once again willing to hold their BTC while expecting further upside.”
