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By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
The crypto market remains choppy, with the CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) little changed on a 24-hour basis and the bitcoin BTC$91,693.94 price consolidating above $90,000. Sounds boring, right?
But this price action actually validates the oversold conditions signaled by the relative strength index (RSI) on Tuesday, when BTC first explored lows under $90,000. On the same day, CoinDesk flagged that the RSI reading needs validation from those signature doji candles — the ones with lower wicks — that tell you sellers might be losing their grip.
Guess what? Those clues showed up in the form of back-to-back daily candles with long lower wicks (Check the TA section), signaling bears’ failure to keep prices below $90,000. Coupled with the oversold RSI, it looks like the downtrend might be running out of gas.
The timing of this signal couldn’t be more interesting, because the much-delayed U.S. nonfarm payrolls data for September is scheduled for release later today.
To be sure, it’s old news. Plus, the Labor Department has said it won’t release the October report, which could deepen the divide at the Fed over interest-rate cuts. But while there is a high chance the market will disregard this figure, the crypto market right now is battered and bruised, starved for good news.
Market sentiment is crushed, fear is rampant and bitcoin’s already dropped 30% from its $126K record high. Investors are camped out on the bearish side and have scaled back expectations of a Fed rate cut to 30% from 98% a month ago.
This is precisely the set up where a piece of good news — a massively weak payroll data that boosts rate-cut bets, for example — can trigger a short squeeze and a rally. So, with all these pieces in place, don’t be surprised if we see some bullish volatility lighting up the market.
In other key news items worth noting, Ripple executives are openly discussing the possibility of introducing native staking on the XRP Ledger to expand XRP’s role in DeFi.
Base co-founder Jesse Pollak announced on X that his personal token, JESSE, will launch on the Base App, expanding the layer-2’s ecosystem.
In traditional markets, the yen continued weakening against the dollar even as domestic government bond yields surged, a sign of fiscal stress reflecting in FX markets. Traders are closely watching for signs the Bank of Japan might intervene to stop the currency’s slide. Stay alert.
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.
