Introduction:
BTC is testing a stacked resistance zone around $117k-$118k on the Daily/4H while the Weekly trend remains broadly up. Price has printed a sequence of higher lows since early September inside a rising channel. My invalidation for the bullish case sits below $114k (last notable swing-base / channel support).
Chart Read (bullets):
* Trend & Structure: Weekly uptrend intact; Daily/4H show ascending structure with consecutive higher lows. A larger down-sloping trendline from the prior peak still caps price near $118k-$119k.
* Key Levels: Resistance $117k-$118k (labelled “Eyes on 18000” on chart); overhead supply/ATH zone $124k-$125k. Supports: $114k (recent swing/median), $106k-$105k (Major Support-1), and $100k area (Major Support-2).
* Pattern/Triggers: 4H rising channel; price compressing under horizontal supply and descending trendline. Break/close above $118k = bullish trigger; failure/rejection here = short setup back toward $114k.
* Indicators (from chart): RSI hovering near ~59-60 on Daily (not overbought). Short/medium EMAs are rising with price trading above them (periods not labeled). ADX shows trend strength around ~23 with +DI above -DI. Volume has been moderate; an expansion would confirm the move.
Trade Plan (risk-managed):
Long Setup: Consider on a decisive Daily/4H close above $118k or a clean break-and-retest of that zone turning it to support. SL: below $114k (or channel base), allowing for wick noise. TP1: $121.5k-$122k (intermediate supply). TP2: $124k-$125k (ATH supply). Aim for ~1:2-1:3 R:R.
Short Setup: If price rejects $117k-$118k with bearish reversal (long upper wicks / momentum roll), consider a short toward $114k. SL: above $119.5k-$120k (above trendline/supply). TP1: $114k. TP2: $106k-$105k if momentum accelerates.
Note: Multi-week compression under supply often precedes an explosive move; confirmation (close + volume) matters more than the first poke.
Upcoming News/Events (Top 3):
* FOMC rate decision — Sep 16-17, 2025. Policy shift or guidance can swing liquidity and risk appetite.
Federal Reserve
* CME BTC futures & options quarterly expiration — Fri, Sep 26, 2025 (last Friday). Position rolls/hedging can amplify volatility.
CME Group
+1
* TOKEN2049 Singapore — Oct 1-2, 2025. Major crypto conference; headlines/fund flows can influence sentiment.
TOKEN2049
+1
Educational Takeaway:
A break-and-retest is simply price closing through a key level, then pulling back to that same level and holding it as support (or resistance). It filters fake breakouts: the retest shows whether supply/demand truly flipped. Pair it with rising EMAs and a supportive RSI to improve odds and define your stop objectively.
Conclusion:
Bias is constructively bullish only on acceptance above $118k; that unlocks the path toward $124k-$125k. Lose $114k convincingly and the risk shifts to a deeper pullback toward $106k-$105k. Let confirmation lead entries and size positions so one trade can’t harm your account.
Disclaimer: This is educational content, not financial advice.
Tags: #BTC #Bitcoin #PriceAction #EMA #Breakout #Support #RiskManagement #TradingEducation #TechnicalAnalysis
