Futures funding has remained neutral but vulnerable, while ETF inflows have declined sharply.
According to a CryptoQuant report, on-chain and exchange data have revealed a new pattern where Asia and the U.S. decide BTC rallies and how long they last. The pattern comes from monitoring Coinbase, which represents U.S. action and Asian activity on Binance.
Bitcoin has been experiencing volatility recently, with significant price movements that have seen its value surpass $111,000. Usually, these price actions are triggered by whales, but analysts now claim things have changed now that institutions have gotten involved.
In the past, whales and ETF flows contributed largely to BTC’s price movements, but in recent months, that has changed, with the price action now determined more by regional liquidity.
According to a CryptoQuant report, on-chain and exchange data have revealed a new pattern that involves Asia sparking the initial move, while the U.S. decides whether it lasts. The analysts monitored activity on two exchanges, Coinbase and Binance, with Coinbase representing U.S. action and Binance signaling Asian activity.
Outflow from Coinbase Prime is a classic signal of U.S. institutions transferring BTC into custody — long-term accumulation.
The Coinbase Premium Index (CPI), which tracks the price gap between Coinbase (USD) and Binance (USDT), confirms this theory because when it stays positive, U.S. demand usually leads the momentum. Also, it has been historically proven that rallies that coincide with a positive CPI tend to stick.
Binance flows are different as they tend to reflect Asian retail and trading activity, with heavy inflows often preceding sell pressure, while outflows suggest dip-buying.
The Korea Premium Index (KPI) — famously called the “Kimchi Premium” — is the CPI’s counterpart and captures local sentiment. Moderate readings (+1% to +3%) show healthy demand, while levels above +5% often mark speculative overheating and short-term tops.
When these metrics are overlaid with price, a tug-of-war emerges. As such, analysts have observed that when CPI and KPI flash green simultaneously, global demand is synchronized and rallies explode.
However, when U.S. players take profits while Asian traders keep buying, the dynamic shifts across time zones, creating volatility and sharp swings. Essentially, this means Asia often lights the fire, but America decides whether it turns into an inferno.
For a rally to happen in Q4, the Coinbase Premium will have to turn decisively positive while Asia continues to absorb supply. Otherwise, we may be in for more bearish price action.
Bitcoin currently trades under $112K, and has been consolidating between $104K and $116K with the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) showing investors accumulated in the $108K-$116K range, filling the air gap.
The volatility is on the rise, forcing many to wonder if this is the start of a bear market or just a short-term contraction.
According to Glassnode, the recent price action highlights constructive dip-buying but does not rule out further contraction.
Data also shows that while short-term holder profitability dropped sharply to 42% during the selloff, it has rebounded to 60% which leaves the market neutral but fragile, with renewed momentum only guaranteed should the price reclaim $114K-$116K.
At the same time, off-chain sentiment is cooling. Futures funding has remained neutral but vulnerable, while ETF inflows have declined sharply. Bitcoin ETF flows were primarily directional spot demand, while Ethereum flows reflected a mix of spot demand and cash-and-carry arbitrage.
So, have we entered a bear market? Not exactly.
BTC will need to reclaim the $114K-$116K level to restore broad short-term holders’ profitability and strengthen the bull case. However, if the worst happens and a breakdown below $104K happens, we could see a repeat of prior exhaustion phases, with a potential downside toward $93K-$95K.
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