Analysis by Bitcoin services company River forecasts a transaction surge as individuals and businesses experiment with AI agentic payments.
Monthly transaction volume on the Bitcoin (BTC) Lightning Network, a secondary layer for BTC that enables payment use cases, surpassed the $1 billion milestone in November 2025, according to a report from Bitcoin financial services company River.
Transaction volume on the Lightning Network hit an estimated $1.1 billion in November, across 5.2 million transactions, according to a report shared by Sam Wouters, River’s director of marketing. The report said:
“Lightning adoption happened despite the price declining all of November and generally not doing much in 2025. The adoption was largely driven by exchanges, as well as a growing number of businesses accepting bitcoin payments.”
However, the total transaction count in 2025 is lower compared with 2023, when monthly Lightning transactions peaked at 6.6 million in August of that year, which River attributed to experiments with micropayments in gaming and messaging apps.
The report forecast a similar surge in Lightning transactions as individuals and businesses experiment with AI payments.
The Bitcoin Lightning Network helps scale the Bitcoin network, enabling Bitcoin payments between parties that settle in seconds instead of minutes, encouraging Bitcoin’s use as a medium of exchange, instead of just a risk asset or store of value.
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The Lightning Network reduces transaction costs and settlement times by opening up a payment channel between two or more parties to handle transactions offchain, posting only the net balance of the channel to the Bitcoin ledger once it is closed.
Typically, Bitcoin blocks take 10 minutes on average to be added to the ledger, severely limiting BTC payments, particularly for smaller purchases at physical businesses.
In December 2025, the Lightning Network’s capacity, the total number of coins locked on the network for liquidity, reached 5,606 BTC, as more companies and institutions began using it.
Secure Digital Markets, an Institutional trading and lending company, sent crypto exchange Kraken $1 million in a Lightning transaction in February.
The transaction showed that large, seven-figure amounts can be transferred between institutional parties using Bitcoin’s layer-2 scaling network.
