The Supreme Court’s 6-3 ruling striking down IEEPA tariffs was the year’s most significant macro catalyst — stocks rallied to session highs, European indices hit records, the Ibovespa broke above 190,000, and the dollar reversed its intraday gains. Bitcoin’s reaction told a different story: a 2% spike above $68,000 that evaporated in minutes, leaving BTC flat at $67,835. This pop-and-fade pattern has defined crypto for weeks and underscores a market where sellers overwhelm every bid.
The macro data complicated the picture. US Q4 GDP came in at just 1.4% (vs 2.5% expected), dragged by the Oct-Nov government shutdown, while core PCE surprised higher at 3.0% YoY. The combination — weak growth with sticky inflation — reinforces the Fed’s “higher-for-longer” posture. Markets now price the first rate cut in June at best, with some analysts pushing it to July. For crypto, this means the liquidity tailwind that fueled 2024-2025’s rally remains distant.
ETF flows remain the institutional pulse: Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded $165.76M in outflows on Feb 20, extending the weekly total to -$403.9M. BlackRock’s IBIT alone accounted for $377.4M of the outflows. Ethereum ETFs lost $130M. AUM has now fallen from $125B to $94B in a month — but crucially, this decline tracks the price drop, not mass redemptions. The structural bid from ETF custody remains, just dormant.
Altcoins showed more life than BTC on the day: SOL +0.91%, XRP +0.77%, DOGE +1.49%, ADA +2.89%, HYPE +3.57%. The Altcoin Season Index climbed to 33 — not alt season, but the first sign of selective rotation in weeks. Silver perpetuals surged 7.17% and gold perps +1.97%, confirming that precious metals are capturing the risk-off capital that crypto is losing.
