Despite the short-term bounce, analysts warn that fragile macro conditions, stagnant stablecoin supply and the risk of cascading liquidations below $60,000 leave bitcoin’s medium-term outlook uncertain.
Bitcoin came within touching distance of $70,000 on Wednesday before pulling back to around $68,300 in Thursday morning trading, a nearly 5% swing from the session high to the overnight low of $67,700.
The move marks the strongest attempt to reclaim the $70,000 level since the Feb. 5 crash but stopped short of a clean breakout.
The more interesting story was underneath. Altcoins outperformed across the board, with ether up 8.5%, solana gaining 6.9%, cardano surging 10.8%, and dogecoin adding 8.3%. Bitcoin’s 4.3% gain was among the smallest in the top 10.
That kind of divergence typically signals risk appetite returning to the edges of the market, where traders chase higher-beta moves once they believe the worst of the selling is done.
“The wave of forced selling is starting to clear out,” said Daniel Reis-Faria, CEO of ZeroStack, in an email. “Altcoins are outperforming again, and more of them are ahead of bitcoin. That tells me we’re seeing a rotation.”
The bounce arrived alongside a muted reaction to Nvidia’s quarterly earnings, which beat estimates but failed to sustain a rally. Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 0.3% after the report, and Nvidia shares erased most of their post-earnings gains to edge up just 0.2% in extended trading.
The world’s most valuable company signaled concerns about an overheated AI economy, tempering what had been a multi-day recovery in tech stocks.
Meanwhile, the macro backdrop remains fragile for a continued movement in crypto markets. Market maker Wintermute noted that cryptocurrencies have been losing ground alongside tech stocks as capital rotates into defensive and tangible assets.
Crypto finance platform Matrixport flagged stagnation in stablecoin supply as a “significant obstacle” for bitcoin, and onchain data firm Glassnode expects broader liquidity to recover in six months at the earliest.
The near-term risk is straightforward. Cryptoquant data shows selling has slowed on Binance, which supports the case for a short-term bounce. Elsewhere, crypto exchange Bitrue warned that a break below $60,000 could open up a move toward $50,000-$55,000 or even $47,000 if cascading liquidations accelerate.
The gap between the short-term bounce and the medium-term trend remains wide — and Wednesday’s rejection at $70,000 did nothing to close it.
