TWIN PEAKS 🎄🌲
How the Business Cycle Supercharges Liquidity (and Crushes Cycles
Many of you may remember my BTC cycle thesis I wrote ~1.5 years ago. It was based solely on technical analysis covering previous cycles and did not take into account macro conditions such as global liquidity and the business cycle.
While that has been a guiding light to get me to this point, after further macro analysis, my views have changed a bit.
Based on my technical analysis, a price target north of $200k remains for BTC, but I now believe we will see some sort of a DOUBLE TOP like we did in 2021; this time in mid-December 2025 and late-March / early April 2026.
The December 2025 top will fulfill the “4-Year Cycle prophecy” which has been fueled by the current boom in global liquidity.
Whereas the March / April 2026 top will come from a booming business cycle (measured by the ISM PMI); something we have yet to see.
As you can see in the 2017 and 2021 cycles, the business cycle cues Alt Season.
I don’t think we see a real one without it.
That’s where people spend the money they made through safer assets such as Gold > Stonks > ₿itcoin etc.
We saw Altcoins, NFTs, Sports Cards, Sneakers, Watches, Collectibles etc go parabolic during this time in 2021. And it just so happened that the market for a lot of these high-risk assets topped around that time.
Here’s a link to a Michael Jordan rookie card in PSA 9 condition that peaked around February 2021 right before the business cycle topped.
https://www.psacard.com/auctionprices/basketball-cards/1986-fleer/michael-jordan/299576?g=9
I think Altcoins went on for a bit longer after the business cycle topped because they were native on-chain and had less friction to transact (crime season anyone?).
NFTs saw sustained speculation because of the novelty and innovation they were bringing to the space. NFTs should act more like traditional risk assets this time around, and top slightly after the business cycle.
THE FURTHER WE ARE IN THE BUSINESS CYCLE, THE FASTER LIQUIDITY REACHES RISK ASSETS.
Think about it… everyone and their mother are making a ton of money from a booming business cycle ie hairdressers, uber drivers, personal trainers etc and dumb money finds high-risk assets near instantly. We see this with an uptick in google searches, youtube views etc.
This is why global liquidity with a 10-12 week lead overshoots cycle tops in the past.
An immense amount of Global QE in 2021 created an outlier for a continued pump in liquidity, even after the business cycle topped.
Then in the bear market, liquidity deviates from risk assets again as money moves back to safe havens first such as GOLD, which is a near 1:1 injection, and we see ₿itcoin lag by 10-12 weeks.
We should continue to see large caps do well for the remainder of the year as money slowly rotates out of BTC into ETH, SOL, BNB etc, but small caps don’t start to outperform until the business cycle starts convincingly rising well above 50.
Alternative investments such as sports cards are starting to see a similar rotation. Michael Jordan is the ₿itcoin of sports cards, and many of his cards are well above 2021 all-time highs. Other high-end cards from GOATs such as Tom Brady, Mickey Mantle, Wayne Gretzky etc continue to shatter prior records.
NFTs are also starting to see a resurgence with high-end collections such as Crypto Punks, X-Copy etc.
I’m not completely sure if the first or second top will be higher for BTC yet, but I’m leaning towards the first one in December.
The aforementioned riskier assets should get the lion’s share of business cycle capital in March / April.
At this nexus we will see the Treasury General Account refill suck liquidity out of markets due to tax season. TGA refills have marked previous tops in 2017 and 2021, so I see no reason for this time to be different.
Yes, this will be a much shorter business cycle, which is caused by a historic amount of money printing during the pandemic. The outcome left the US economy in a high-inflation / high-interest rate environment.
The business cycle represents Main Street, and it is clear that the aftermath of the pandemic has crushed middle and lower income households.
~FIN~
JK
POST REFERENCES:
-The 4-Year Boom and Bust Cycle is by design
-Synchronized Bear Market Bottoms
-If you want to dive deeper into the current macro landscape, you should definitely read the playbook I wrote ~10 months ago. It’s been playing out near-perfectly.
