A weekly close below $82K could signal breakdown and extend losses toward $74K-$69K levels.
Bitcoin(BTC) has shown a bounce near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level around $84,567. This area served as a temporary support after the recent move down, marked as wave-(1) in the current Elliott Wave structure. According to market observers, as long as price stays above the $81,100 low, which defines the wave-(1) bottom, there is room for a continued recovery into the next resistance zone.
Key retracement levels now being tracked are the 0.5 level at $85,670, the 0.618 level at $86,791, and the 0.786 level at $88,410. These areas could limit further upside unless buyers take firm control. Price movement into this range would complete a wave-(2) move before the market decides on the next direction.
While a short-term rally is underway, the broader chart continues to show a bearish five-wave setup. The pattern remains intact unless price breaks above the mentioned resistance area. If the bounce fades and $81,100 is lost, attention will likely shift toward lower supports.
Levels between $74,400 and $69,187 remain in focus as possible next zones to be tested. These levels line up with Fibonacci extension points for wave-(3) and wave-(5), based on earlier price swings. For now, bulls will need to hold the current low and push through key retracement targets to change this outlook.
On the weekly timeframe, Bitcoin is pressing against the lower edge of the Gaussian Channel. This zone, near $82,000, is seen as the last major support of the structure. If the weekly candle closes below this level, the break could open the door for further downside.
MarzellCrypto commented that a close under this boundary “would represent a definitive breakdown of the Gaussian structure.” Price has already failed to reclaim the midline of the channel in recent weeks, and now sits at the edge. How the weekly candle closes will be closely watched by market participants.
At press time, Bitcoin was priced at $82,787.14. Over the past 24 hours, price is slightly higher by 0.2%. Over the past 7 days, it has fallen by 7.48%. Total trading volume for the last 24 hours is $53.5 billion, reflecting active participation during this key technical test.
