I’m tracking a possible irregular flat correction that could pull BTC toward ~62,513 — only if two key trend supports break.
Note: This Elliott count differs from my main count. It’s my secondary scenario — lower conviction, but it deserves close attention because the structure is developing cleanly.
The story so far
From the Nov 22, 2022 low, BTC ran a full 5-wave impulse.
Wave 3 was the extended one.
Wave 4 formed a triangle.
Wave 5 ran hotter than expected (roughly the size of Wave 3). That’s unusual, likely fueled by extreme Bollinger Band Width compression before the final push.
Why this matters: when Wave 3 extends, Wave 5 is usually shorter. It isn’t a hard rule — just a guideline — so this count stays on the board, but it’s not a high-conviction setup.
What I think is happening now
The drop and bounce look like an expanded (irregular) flat: (A) down, (B) up which was our All time high, C down.
If the pattern completes, C could target ~62,513.
What would confirm it (the “if/then”)
Lose the first rising trend support (≈ 109k).
Then lose the second, deeper trend support.
➡️ If both break, the path toward ~62.5k opens up.
Between those two lines: BTC can go sideways for a few weeks — that “range box” is important.
Why the range box matters (Altseason meter)
Altcoins usually need steady BTC to fly:
BTC sideways (not spiking up or dumping).
TOTAL2 (alt mkt cap) breaks ATH.
BTC.D rolls over (dominance falls).
If these three line up, we’ve got a real altseason setup. If not, it’s noise.
Bottom line
This is a watchlist scenario, not gospel.
I’ll respect the levels: no break = no bear target.
If we range between supports, I’ll look for alt strength while BTC stays calm.
