This week, bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH) recovered from the decline triggered by geopolitical developments last week. While BTC showed greater resilience compared to ETH, both assets rebounded strongly as tensions appeared to ease.
According to a weekly report by the world’s largest crypto exchange, Binance, Bitcoin’s dominance recorded a slight decline during the recovery. However, this is not a strong indication that the market will soon witness an altseason.
Binance said bitcoin’s resilience signaled a potential shift toward risk assets as macro conditions somewhat improved.
After a broader shakeout triggered by geopolitical tensions, both traditional assets and BTC ended the week in the green. However, BTC solidified its position as an emerging hedge asset amid geopolitical uncertainty, recovering to $107,000 after falling to $98,000 at the beginning of the week.
On the other hand, ETH followed a similar trajectory but exhibited greater downside volatility and a less pronounced recovery. The asset’s performance showed that it is less established in the role of a hedge asset. ETH closed the week below its opening price at $2,480 after plunging to a low of $2,130 on Monday.
“While it remains uncertain whether Bitcoin will sustain its outperformance following this weekend’s events, its strong initial recovery may signal market expectations for a continued upward trend in the largest cryptocurrency. Bitcoin dominance remains elevated at ~66%,” Binance added.
As both assets strive to remain above certain support zones, optimism for an altseason in this cycle is fading. Investors are increasingly asking when the altseason will begin.
According to historical data, these have consistently followed strong BTC rallies, becoming more pronounced when the leading asset enters a consolidation phase. During these times, capital has rotated from BTC to more volatile, small-cap altcoins with higher speculative appeal.
Interestingly, past altcoin seasons have been characterized by new industry themes, such as initial coin offerings (ICOs), decentralized finance (DeFi), and layer-2 solutions. In this cycle, the prevailing concepts — meme coins, BitcoinFi, and decentralized physical infrastructure network (DePIN) — are modifications of previous trends, so they are not strong enough to trigger major rallies.
This cycle is also different because of the oversaturated market of new projects. Binance analysts insist that even if fresh capital flows into altcoins, it is likely to be diluted across the numerous tokens currently in existence. Hence, the market requires a significant catalyst to trigger the altseason, as capital rotation and industry narratives are no longer sufficient.
