Britons are set to be poorer than Turks and Latvians by the 2040s, according to new research that has shows the UK plummeting down global economic rankings.
New modelling by the Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr) found Britain will be only the 46th richest country in the world by 2050.
This is despite the UK having been the 25th richest country in the world, based on GDP per capita, between 1998 to 2003.
The Cebr study found Lithuania will overtake the UK in GDP per capita by 2030, with the Czech Republic and Saudia Arabia eclipsing Britain in 2031, and Poland overtaking in 2034.
By 2043, Turkey and Latvia will also have higher GDP per capita than the UK, while Panama and Slovakia will enjoy higher average living standards than Britain by 2050.
The Cebr’s new World Economic League Table Projections are included in a new book, Prosperity Through Growth, authored by American economist Dr Arthur Laffer and others.
The authors asked the Cebr to translate their World Economic League Table 2025 into implications for comparative GDP per capita at purchasing power parity up to 2050.
The UK was the world’s 30th richest economy in 2024, with the study showing the average Brit is set to become poorer – in relative terms when compared to neighbouring countries – over the coming 25 years.
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Turkey is the poorest country that is forecast to overtake the UK in less than 20 years.
It currently has a GDP per capita of just $35,631 – less than two-thirds of the UK’s current $54,475.
The only two countries forecast to fall behind the UK over this period are Canada and France, which fall from 26th to 54th and 27th to 49th, respectively.
France is currently facing political turmoil and a looming fiscal crisis as debt-to-GDP remains stubbornly high and its politicians struggle to control spending.
Researchers pointed to Canada being squeezed by weak productivity, high household debt, and slowing investment.
The Cebr based their projections on calculations using comparative GDP per capita in 2017 dollar purchasing power (adjusted for the comparative cost of living) out to 2050.
Prosperity Through Growth, also authored by Lord Matthew Elliott, Lord Michael Hintze, and Douglas McWillliams, is being released prior to next month’s Budget in the UK.
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The authors offer Chancellor Rachel Reeves an alternative suite of 24 policies to boost economic growth by an additional 7 per cent in five years, and nearly 30 per cent over 20 years.
The book sets out, if these plans are implemented, then the UK’s GDP per capita in 2050 would rise from a projected $74,832 to $96,383.
This would lift Britain’s position in the world’s GDP per capita league table from a projected 46th position to 19th.
The policies being touted by the authors include merging National Insurance and taxes on income into a single flat tax, slashing business regulation, and adopting a ‘smart Net Zero’ approach that is focused on making energy costs cheaper.
The book interviews 35 top political and economic decision makers, including nine former chancellors and five former prime ministers.
David Cameron, who was PM between 2010 to 2016, said: ‘We’re in a situation of genteel decline – people just putting up with 1 per cent growth.
‘We’re effectively getting poorer, but we’re pretending we aren’t, and we need to convince people it doesn’t have to be that way.
‘But we need to convince people we’ve got a very clear plan.’
Gus O’Donnell, the former cabinet secretary and head of the civil service, told the book’s authors: ‘This is a magnificent project. This is really, really important.’
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