Brazil’s financial markets open today on the heels of a 12th consecutive Ibovespa record, fueled by October inflation cooling to just 0.09% — the softest October reading since 1998.
This eases near-term pressure on households and businesses while keeping the 12-month rate at 4.68%, still above the Central Bank’s upper tolerance band.
Gol’s leaner post-restructuring model signals steadier domestic travel and investor appeal, and Brazil’s critical-minerals push holds massive GDP promise despite bureaucratic delays stalling a clearer industrial strategy.
Today’s sole Brazilian print — 07:00 AM BRT September services growth (prev. MoM 0.1%, YoY 2.5%) — matters because a firm read reinforces post-inflation relief, supports private-sector momentum, and bolsters early-2026 Selic-cut conviction; any stall risks tempering the record streak and foreign inflows.
Key global prints steer EM sentiment:
* 05:00 AM BRT OPEC Monthly Report
* 07:00 AM BRT U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications
* All day Eurogroup Meetings
These matter because OPEC supply signals influence Brent and Petrobras pricing; steady U.S. housing data sustains dollar pause, aiding BRL carry; Eurogroup tone sets EUR spill into commodity-exposed names.
Economic Agenda for November 12, 2025
Brazil
* 07:00 AM BRT – Service Sector Growth (MoM) (Sep) Prev: 0.1%
* 07:00 AM BRT – Service Sector Growth (YoY) (Sep) Prev: 2.5% Implication: Solid expansion = consumption rebound, cut bets, equity bid; soft print = caution on recovery pace, BRL cap.
Mexico
* 11:00 AM BRT – Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI (Nov) Prev: 53.45 Implication: Confidence uptick lifts near-shoring narrative, peso spill aids regional carry.
United States
* 07:00 AM BRT – MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW) Prev: -1.9%
* 09:20 AM BRT – FOMC Member Williams Speaks
* 10:20 AM BRT – Fed Waller Speaks Implication: Firm applications + dovish Fed = softer dollar, EM relief; hawkish tilt caps risk-on.
Europe
* 12 min past hour – Italian Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep) Act: 2.8%
* 05:00 AM BRT – OPEC Monthly Report
* 05:45 AM BRT – ECB’s Schnabel Speaks Implication: Italian rebound curbs EZ drag; OPEC/ECB tone sets oil/EUR path, indirect commodity spill.
Why These Events Matter: Brazil’s services gauge is today’s local anchor — robust growth keeps the post-inflation rally alive and foreign bids strong.
Global oil/housing/Fed cues set the dollar-commodity tempo; upside surprises prolong high-Selic discipline, while dovish signals fuel EM revival and Ibovespa fuel.
Brazil’s Markets Yesterday
São Paulo’s B3 surged to another nominal record on Tuesday, with the Ibovespa closing at 157,748 (+1.6%) and briefly crossing 158,000.
It was the 15th straight advance and 12th consecutive record, powered by a rare combination of softer inflation, firmer currency and rising confidence that interest-rate cuts are nearing. The dollar eased to about R$5.27, its lowest since mid-2024.
U.S. Markets Yesterday
On November 11, 2025, U.S. markets ended mixed: the S&P 500 rose 0.2%, the Dow Jones gained 1.2% to a record close, and the Nasdaq fell 0.3% due to continued pressure on AI stocks like Nvidia. Paramount Skydance (+9.8%) and FedEx (+5.4%) led gainers.
Trading was light with bond markets closed for Veterans Day. The S&P 500 is up 16.4% for the year, the Dow 12.7%, and the Nasdaq 21.5%. Investors awaited the end of the historic government shutdown as the Senate advanced a funding bill.
Mexico’s Market Yesterday
Mexico’s markets rallied on Tuesday, with the peso near 18.31 per dollar and the IPC index hitting a record at 64,321 after a 1.9% surge. Gains were broad, led by banks and consumer staples.
Argentina’s Market Yesterday
Argentina’s peso opened steady near 1,410 per dollar officially and 1,420-1,440 for the blue dollar, with the gap narrowing. Equities cooled after a breakout, with the S&P Merval hovering below recent highs in consolidation.
Colombia’s Market Yesterday
The Colombian market opened higher with the COLCAP near 2,080 in record territory and the peso trading around 3.73-3.76 per dollar after a firm session. The rally defied political noise due to discounted valuations and strong dividend yields.
Chile’s Market Yesterday
Chile’s stock market rose, with the IPSA extending its rally led by banks, miners, utilities, and retail. The peso strengthened against the dollar, trading around mid-930s USD/CLP.
Commodities
Brazilian Real
The real strengthened to 5.2732 USD/BRL Tuesday, down 0.64%, buoyed by cooler-than-expected inflation, Copom minutes signaling the 15% Selic rate is adequate for a prolonged period, improved global risk appetite from a U.S. government funding deal, and higher commodity prices (Brent futures up 1.7% to $65 a barrel). Charts trend below short-term moving averages; bias bullish toward 5.26-5.24 if optimism holds.
Cryptocurrencies
Crypto market softens; Bitcoin at $103,400 (-1.6%), Ether $3,449 (-3.2%). Altcoins broadly lower (Solana -5.3%, XRP -3.2%).
Companies and Market
Industry Outlook
Corporate discipline shines — Gol posts first profit post-Chapter 11 on leaner ops, Prio scales oil output via Peregrino deal, Braskem slashes loss on Alagoas resolution amid softer dollar and rate relief.
Key Developments
Gol Q3 net profit R$248m (vs year-earlier loss), revenue +11.6% to R$5.54bn, recurring EBITDA R$1.63bn on higher utilization and lower fuel; leverage down to 3.2x.
Prio acquires 40% of Peregrino fields for $1.545bn, gaining operatorship and adding ~40,000 bpd to push total output beyond 150,000 bpd.
Braskem Q3 net loss narrows 96% to R$26m on Alagoas deal progress.
