Brazilian authorities have moved to shut down 27 prediction market platforms, including Kalshi and Polymarket, citing regulatory concerns.
The decision, announced Friday, follows a directive from the Ministry of Finance and enforcement by the National Telecommunications Agency (Anatel), according to state-run outlet Agência Brasil. Officials argued that such platforms operate outside Brazil’s legal framework and are therefore considered illegal.
“We have been monitoring the evolution of this sector in Brazil, which experienced a period of anarchy due to a lack of rules and oversight between 2018 and 2022,” Finance Ministry executive secretary Dario Durigan said during a press conference at the Palácio do Planalto.
The move comes after the National Monetary Council (CMN) passed Resolution 5.298, set to take effect in early May, which significantly restricts prediction market offerings. Under the new rules, contracts tied to sports, politics, entertainment, or social events are banned, as regulators view them as closer to gambling than legitimate financial instruments.
Only contracts linked to economic indicators—such as inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, or commodity prices—will remain permitted under financial market supervision.
Authorities warn of debt risks
Durigan also warned that prediction markets could contribute to rising household debt and financial strain. “As we work to reduce debt among families, small businesses, and students, we must also prevent new forms of harmful indebtedness,” he said.
The blocked platforms include a mix of global and Brazil-focused services, with major names such as Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt, Robinhood (through its forecasting feature), and Fanatics Markets.
Other affected platforms include ProphetX, Hedgehog Markets, Novig, Polyswipe, PRED Exchange, and Stride, along with several Brazil-focused services such as Palpita, Cravei, Previsao, and MercadoPred.
More countries move to restrict prediction markets
A growing number of jurisdictions are taking action against prediction markets, often classifying them under gambling or financial regulations. Several European countries—including France, Belgium, and the Netherlands—have blocked or penalized platforms operating without proper authorization.
In the United States, the regulatory landscape remains more fragmented, with an ongoing tug-of-war between federal authorities and individual states over how prediction markets should be governed.
