The max pain levels are set at $112,000 for Bitcoin and $2,900 for Ethereum. At those prices, most options holders would face the largest losses, and asset prices often tend to gravitate toward those points as expiry approaches. The put/call ratio stands at 0.93 for BTC and 0.88 for ETH — figures that show a moderately optimistic outlook, although some investors are hedging against potential pullbacks.
Analysts at Greeks.live note that volatility is hovering around 30%, and many traders are holding onto short positions despite accumulated losses. That behavior stems from concerns about sharp corrections, even as prices trend upward. Watching volatility levels is crucial to anticipating potential market swings in the hours ahead.
Interest in today’s expiry intensified after SpaceX moved $153 million in Bitcoin following three years of inactivity. While the transfer triggered a wave of speculation, analysts believe it won’t affect the overall structure of options positioning. In contrast, call bets on Tesla ahead of its Q2 earnings reflected optimism, but a disappointing earnings report showed how overextended positions can lead to sharp reversals.
All Deribit options expire at 8:00 UTC, and the market typically stabilizes after this reset. July’s expiry will serve as a stress test for Bitcoin and Ethereum prices. The immediate reaction after expiry will set the tone for the days ahead, as traders recalibrate based on where prices land and how incoming liquidity reshapes positioning.
