A crypto analyst believes Bitcoin’s “maximum pain” level this cycle is around $55,000, arguing that technical indicators make a deeper drop unlikely—pushing back against predictions of a fall to $35,000.
A decline to $35,000 would represent a 72% retracement, a scenario that has precedent: Bitcoin plunged 77% from its November 2021 peak of $69,000 to a bottom of $15,500 in November 2022.
But analyst “Sykodelic” told his 62,000 X followers on Tuesday that forecasts of Bitcoin crashing to $35,000 in 2026 are “absolute rubbish.”
“For Bitcoin to retrace 75%, it actually has to fully expand, and this cycle, it just did not do that,” he said, noting that such deep pullbacks only occur when expansion—measured through the relative strength index (RSI)—is strong enough to support an equally sharp contraction.
Bitcoin is currently down 31% from its early October high of $126,000, which Sykodelic emphasized is still within normal bull-market behavior.
Bollinger Bands as the key floor
The analyst also pointed to Bollinger Bands on the monthly chart, noting that Bitcoin has never fallen below the lower band on this timeframe. They compared the current cycle to 2017, which saw massive gains, yet still didn’t see price drop through the monthly lower Bollinger Band.
Given that this cycle has shown “the weakest expansion ever,” the analyst questioned why it would suddenly produce “the deepest contraction.”
“Basically, absolute worst-case scenario and if this is a big bad bear… if we close this monthly candle below the mid line, then we could be expecting a maximum bottom of $55k.”
Other analysts say the Bitcoin correction may not even reach $55K
Jeff Ko, Chief Analyst at CoinEx, told Cointelegraph that even a retreat to $55,000 seems unlikely. In his view, the “bear-case” outcome would only push Bitcoin back to the $65,000–$68,000 range.
Ko added that the traditional four-year market cycle is breaking down as Bitcoin becomes increasingly institutionalized. Because of this shift, he said he does not expect another 70%–80% drawdown from all-time highs.
“Market depth, ETF participation, and a structurally broader investor base all suggest that future corrections will be shallower and more orderly compared to previous cycles.”
Catastrophic decline possible if key support fails
Augustine Fan, head of insights at crypto trading platform SignalPlus, warned of a sharp downturn if Bitcoin loses the “significant support area between $72,000 and $75,000.”
“A break below will likely trigger catastrophic stop-losses with unknown consequences, given the amount of DAT stop selling, its impact on Strategy’s positioning, and the viability of those positions amid significant implied losses,” he told Cointelegraph.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading near $87,000, bouncing back slightly after dipping to $84,000 on Monday.
