JPMorgan Chase (JPM -0.48%) is a massive financial institution with more assets than any other U.S. bank and an $804 billion market cap. To be perfectly clear, it is a remarkable business with fantastic leadership.
Having said that, while I think JPMorgan Chase will continue to grow over the coming years, I don’t necessarily think it will be on top of the industry forever. While there’s no way to know what the banking industry or U.S. economy will look like in a couple of decades, there are some companies that have massive opportunities and the potential to grow rapidly.
I realize this is a bold prediction. There’s a lot that needs to go right for any other bank stock to get close to JPMorgan Chase’s market cap. But if we’re looking at a time frame of 20 years, these two have a better chance than many experts think.
As of this writing, Capital One (COF 0.30%) has a $135 billion market cap, so it would have to outpace JPMorgan Chase by about 500% to overtake it. But in a 20-year period, that’s certainly within the realm of possibilities.
For one thing, Capital One doesn’t necessarily need to grow its business to the size of JPMorgan Chase. Because of its credit card and auto lending focus, Capital One has far better net-interest margins. The bank has done an excellent job of innovating and is the third-largest player in the credit card industry with about $850 billion in credit card purchase volume last year. But after its recent acquisition of Discover, it has the number one share in credit card loans. Over the past decade alone, Capital One’s credit card spending volume has more than tripled, so there’s excellent growth momentum here.
Furthermore, Capital One has about $470 billion in total deposits, about one-fourth of what JPMorgan Chase has today. Capital One has done an excellent job of not only modernizing the branch-based banking experience but has also been the first major bank to offer high-yield deposit products to branch customers. I could see its deposit growth outpacing its big-bank competitors over the coming years.
Finally, one factor that could help catapult Capital One to the next level is that it is now the only large U.S. consumer-facing bank to have its own payment network. At first, this will be mostly useful to avoid paying companies like Visa and Mastercard interchange fees on its own card products, but over time there could be interesting possibilities to build out the Discover network as a truly competitive alternative to the payment-processing giants.
The Capital One prediction is certainly bold, but there’s a clear path to get there, especially if the Discover network truly gains traction as a globally competitive payment network. But this next one is admittedly a bit of a stretch.
SoFi (SOFI 2.56%) has a market cap of about $18.4 billion today, which means that JPMorgan Chase is roughly 44 times as valuable. But if SoFi can keep its momentum going, grow its brand recognition, and continue to build out its ecosystem, it could be a massive long-term winner. Management has said that the goal is to become a top 10 financial institution, which would require it to grow more than 10X from its current asset size, so the bank’s leadership team is certainly aiming high.
While other personal finance apps aim to do one or two things better than traditional banks, such as offering high-yield savings accounts or a stock-trading platform, SoFi is building a true bank replacement. The ultimate goal is for SoFi to be able to do everything your current bank, brokerage, insurance agent, and other financial services businesses do — all in one app and better than the legacy providers.
The company’s growth momentum has been impressive to say the least. Its membership base has tripled over the past three years, and SoFi (which only received a banking charter in 2022) has grown its deposit base from zero to $27 billion.
There are several major catalysts that could take SoFi to the next level. The third-party loan platform is one big example that is growing fast. It’s where SoFi originates loans on behalf of third-party partners and makes applicant referrals, generating a low-risk stream of fee income from the massive personal loan industry. SoFi’s home loan business is another example. Even in a terribly slow real estate market with elevated interest rates, SoFi originated nearly six times the home loan volume in the first quarter than it did two years ago. With Americans sitting on more equity ($35 trillion) and pent-up home-buying demand than ever, this could be a massive opportunity.
Cryptocurrency is a recent development that could bring more customers into SoFi’s ecosystem. The bank recently announced that not only will it be bringing crypto trading back to its app by the end of the year but will use blockchain technology to facilitate cross-border money transfers quicker and more cost effectively than peers, and this is a $93 billion market.
As a final thought, keep in mind that these are meant to be two bold predictions. There’s a lot that would need to go well for either of these companies to overtake JPMorgan Chase’s position as the most valuable U.S. bank. It’s possible, but it’s not especially likely.
However, even if JPMorgan Chase remains the largest U.S. bank in two decades, that’s OK. These are two well-run banks with massive market opportunities, and I’m quite confident that they’ll deliver strong returns for investors over the long term. I own both in my personal stock portfolio and can’t wait to watch their next chapters unfold.
