Holding $30 is critical; Ethereum weakness or a NAV compression could send BMNR toward deeper supports near $25.
BMNR stock is up 4.3% today, even as it remains down more than 21% over the past five days, mostly following Ethereum’s 12% slide this week. With Q4 earnings set for November 21, early strength in the BMNR price has raised the question of whether the stock is positioning itself ahead of the market, again.
The last time this happened, BMNR moved much earlier than Ethereum. With bottoming signs flashing across crypto, traders are watching to see if history is lining up once more.
Between June 26 and July 3, Ethereum moved only 10%. In that same period, BitMine (BMNR) surged 3,993% from $3.91 to $160.10. It is worth noting that the Q3 results came out on July 2.
Only after BMNR’s explosion did Ethereum begin its real run, rallying more than 100% from early July to late August. BMNR had clearly priced in the move earlier, showing a pattern of reacting to expectations rather than the move itself.
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Now, with several bottoming signals forming across Bitcoin and Ethereum, traders are asking whether BMNR is again sensing a shift under the surface. The stock is stabilizing right before earnings — the same timing as its July behavior — while the broader crypto market is trying to form a base.
This brings us to what BMNR’s own indicators are signaling.
RSI (Relative Strength Index) measures price momentum. Between June 27 and November 17, BMNR made a higher low, while RSI made a lower low. That is hidden bullish divergence, which appears in assets that remain in long-term uptrends even during strong pullbacks.
RSI has also bounced from oversold conditions, giving BMNR a steadier base ahead of the earnings call.
But the real confirmation still rests with On-Balance Volume (OBV). OBV adds volume on up days and subtracts volume on down days to show who controls the market.
Here is what matters now:
There is also a long-term OBV divergence on the chart.
From September 5 to November 17, the BMNR price made a lower low, but the OBV made a higher low. This is often a sign that seller pressure is fading in the background, even if the price hasn’t reacted yet.
If OBV breaks out, BMNR’s correlation with Ethereum strengthens — as it did before the July rally.
BMNR has held $30 as major support since early August. The stock’s current stabilization shows this level is still active.
If $30 holds:
One more positive signal appears on the CMF. The Chaikin Money Flow tracks inflows and outflows using price and volume. CMF has now broken above its descending trend line, which means inflows are rising again right before the result date. This does not confirm a breakout on its own, but it strengthens the case that buyers are returning at the right time.
This aligns with Donald Dean’s NAV model.
Dean uses a NAV multiple where BMNR’s value tracks ETH ownership and cash reserves.
He estimates the stock’s upside using ETH’s percentage moves. This means that if Ethereum rebounds 10%, BMNR’s fair value under Dean’s model moves well above the current range, placing the stock closer to its higher extensions. That’s close to $65, per the chart.
So the next move depends on two things: OBV breakout and Ethereum price direction. If both align near the earnings release, the BMNR price may once again outpace the crypto market.
