An old research paper is back in the spotlight and stirring conversations in the crypto world. The paper, co-written in 2018 by Robert Mitchnick, now BlackRock’s Head of Digital Assets, and Stanford economist Susan Athey, tried to answer a bold question on how much Bitcoin (BTC) and XRP are really worth.
At the time, Bitcoin traded near $7,000, while XRP hovered around $0.50. Their prices had soared the year before, but no one could clearly explain why. Mitchnick and Athey modeled cryptocurrencies as money, not stocks.
The framework they used was highly structured, relying on eight key factors. These included transaction volumes, holding times, storage demand, supply, and locked tokens. They also factored in reserve ratios, discount rates, and the number of years needed for adoption to stabilize.
For Bitcoin, Mitchnick and Athey assumed a steady rise in use, projecting $5.6 billion to $28.2 billion in daily transactions by 2030. If Bitcoin captured even part of gold’s value as a store of wealth, they estimated demand could reach $1.1 to $1.6 trillion. Their math valued the flagship crypto between $45,000 and $93,000. After adjusting for a 30% chance of success, the expected fair value dropped to $13,600-$28,100.
For XRP, their expectations were even bigger. The model suggested that by 2030, XRP could handle $190 billion to $556 billion in daily payments across remittances, corporate transfers, and foreign exchange.
If XRP captured 15-30% of crypto wealth storage, demand might climb to $1.6 to $3.2 trillion. With an 8.5% discount rate, the fair price came out between $6.37 and $32.91. Factoring in a 25% success chance, the expected value narrowed to $1.59-$8.23.
Fast forward to today. Bitcoin trades at almost $117,000, far above the study’s fair value range. XRP, meanwhile, trades at around $3, higher than in 2018 but far from the $32 success case.
The crypto market as a whole has grown into a $4 trillion industry. Bitcoin dominates with a $2.31 trillion valuation and $33 billion in daily volume. XRP holds a smaller share, valued at $180 billion with $4.14 billion in daily transactions.
Many point to the U.S. SEC lawsuit against Ripple, which started in December 2020, as a major reason for XRP’s slower climb. The case, which just ended in 2025, dragged on for years and weighed heavily on adoption.
