In its August capital markets assumptions report, Bitwise — which oversees more than $15 billion in assets — projected Bitcoin could reach $1.3 million by 2035. The firm framed this as its base-case scenario, implying an annualized growth rate of 28.3% from today’s price of roughly $112,000.
At that level, Bitcoin’s market capitalization would approach $28 trillion, more than double the current size of the global gold market. Bitwise also mapped out alternative scenarios: a bullish case of $3 million per coin and a bearish outcome of $88,000.
While ambitious, the report underscores a growing shift in how institutions view Bitcoin — less as a speculative trade and more as a structural component of financial markets.
Long-Term Drivers of Bitcoin Growth
The report highlights three primary forces shaping Bitcoin’s future:
- Institutional adoption – Since the approval of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024, institutional inflows have surged, now accounting for more than 75% of trading activity. Bitwise estimates that demand is currently outpacing new supply six-to-one. Corporate treasuries, pension funds, and even sovereign wealth funds are beginning to allocate, signaling Bitcoin’s integration into mainstream finance.
- Search for inflation hedges – Rising U.S. debt and the erosion of fiat currency purchasing power are driving investors toward scarce, hard assets. Bitwise points out that $10,000 held in U.S. dollars since 2015 has lost about 40% of its value. Bitcoin, with its portability and fixed supply, is increasingly positioned as a modern alternative to gold.
- Fixed issuance and scarcity – With fewer than 1.1 million coins left to be mined and post-halving rewards down to about 450 BTC per day, supply constraints are tightening. Chief investment officer Matt Hougan called Bitcoin’s inelastic supply “the single most important force behind its outlook.”
Risks and Uncertainties
Bitwise cautions that risks remain. Regulatory changes, especially around custody, taxation, and ETF access, could reshape the landscape. Broader macroeconomic shocks — from liquidity crunches to competition from emerging technologies — may also slow adoption. The firm expects recurring 30–60% drawdowns even as volatility continues to moderate.
Still, the broader trend, according to Bitwise, is undeniable: Bitcoin is shifting from the periphery of speculation to the core of global portfolios. If its forecast plays out, the coming decade could see Bitcoin rivaling gold and U.S. Treasuries as a mainstream store of value.
