Bitcoin’s nearly three-month rally could be running out of steam as buying momentum slows and more traders begin locking in profits, according to crypto analysts.
“For the first time during this uptrend, we’re seeing a clear loss of momentum,” Bitfinex analysts noted in a market report released Monday.
After hitting a year-to-date low of $73,273 on April 9, Bitcoin has climbed nearly 41%, reaching $107,380 at the time of writing, per CoinMarketCap data.
‘Vertical acceleration’ on pause for now
However, the analysts cautioned that order flow and on-chain data suggest Bitcoin could be entering a consolidation phase or approaching a local top, rather than continuing its sharp upward trajectory.
“Spot volumes have declined, taker buy pressure is easing, and profit-taking has picked up — particularly among short-term holders who benefited from the rally off sub-$80,000 levels,” they noted.
Analysts say ETF inflows need to hold steady to sustain momentum
Analysts say Bitcoin’s next major move will hinge on macroeconomic developments and sustained institutional interest, particularly through ETF inflows.
Since June 9, U.S.-based spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded 14 consecutive days of net inflows, totaling $4.63 billion as of June 27, according to Farside data. Economist Timothy Peterson called last week’s $2.2 billion in inflows “massive” and expects the trend to continue. “There’s a 70% chance next week will be positive too, which generally supports upward price momentum,” he said.
Traders are also eyeing the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision on July 30, as rate cuts are typically seen as bullish for crypto markets. The CME FedWatch tool currently assigns a 19% probability of a rate cut at that meeting.
Despite near-term uncertainty, analysts say Bitcoin’s broader market structure remains intact, with key long-term support levels still holding. “The data suggests we’re entering a transition phase,” they added.
Bitcoin’s uptrend likely to resume once long-term holders pause selling
Some analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s outlook. Economist Donald Dean noted, “Bitcoin is preparing for another move higher, with price consolidating tightly around a key volume shelf.”
Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, recently pointed out that selling pressure from long-term holders has been a major factor limiting Bitcoin’s price growth, despite rising institutional and corporate interest.
“People are wondering why Bitcoin has been stuck around $100K despite the wave of institutional FOMO,” Edwards said. “The main reason is early Bitcoin holders — the OGs — have been offloading their positions onto Wall Street since the spot ETFs launched in January 2024.”
