Bitfinex analysts note that Bitcoin has formed a strong resistance level around $116,000, which is unlikely to shift unless the cryptocurrency regains fresh momentum.
In a report published Tuesday, Bitfinex stated: “BTC now trades at the upper edge of the range near $116,000, which remains resistance until decisively reclaimed.”
The exchange highlighted that Bitcoin’s momentum has weakened since reaching its all-time high of $124,100 on Aug. 14, with the price now slipping below the cost basis of recent buyers who entered between $108,000 and $116,000.
Despite this, analysts pointed to two potential catalysts that could help drive prices higher.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $116,370, according to CoinMarketCap.
Bitcoin’s modest rebound over the past week comes as the U.S. Federal Reserve prepares to announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday, with markets assigning a 96.1% probability of a 25 basis point cut, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Analysts split on Fed impact
Market sentiment is divided over how Bitcoin might respond to a rate cut. Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee described the Fed’s first rate reduction of the year as a potential trigger for Bitcoin and Ether to make “a monster move in the next three months.”
Others remain cautious. Crypto analyst Ted expressed confidence that the Fed will cut rates but suggested Bitcoin could still dip to $104,000 before reversing — or even fall as low as $92,000 before rallying to a new all-time high.
While rate cuts are typically bullish for risk assets — as alternatives like bonds and term deposits become less attractive — analysts caution that markets often price in such moves in advance, leaving room for short-term pullbacks.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index reflected the uncertainty, showing a neutral score of 53 on Wednesday.
Q4 historically favors Bitcoin
Another potential catalyst lies ahead with the start of Q4 on Oct. 1. Historically, the final quarter of the year has been Bitcoin’s strongest, delivering an average return of 85.42% since 2013, according to CoinGlass.
Meanwhile, Bitfinex analysts noted that long-term holder confidence remains intact, despite recent volatility. The latest sell-off — which dragged Bitcoin down to $107,400 on Sept. 1 — was primarily driven by short-term investors who entered the market in the past six months.
“This dynamic suggests that those who accumulated during the February–May correction used the latest bounce as an opportunity to exit with profits, creating significant headwinds for further upside momentum,” Bitfinex analysts said.
