The current drawdown has not affected Bernstein’s Bitcoin[BTC] projection of hitting $150K by the end of 2026.
In a recent note to clients, the analysts at the research and brokerage firm, led by Gautam Chhugani, said the current decline was the ‘weakest’ BTC bear case so far.
“What we are experiencing is the weakest Bitcoin bear case in its history”
Unlike past bear markets, which were driven by blow-ups (the FTX implosion in 2022), hidden leverage, and other systemic risks, the 2026 market doesn’t rhyme, the analysts added.
Chhugani blamed the current weakness on a ‘manufactured crisis of confidence’ driven by followers of the 4-year cycle. The analysts sarcastically wrote,
“When all stars are aligned, Bitcoin community manufactures a self-imposed crisis of confidence. Nothing blew up, no skeletons will unravel. Media is back again to write an obituary. Time remains a flat circle on Bitcoin.”
From its cycle peak of $126K in October, Bitcoin fell to $60K in early February, marking a 52% decline. At press time, it had slightly recovered to $69K.
The past five BTC bear markets since 2011 have averaged an 80% drawdown, with the least being 72%. That would make a 52% decline in 2026, indeed, the ‘weakest’.
However, if it were to match the past trends, that would imply an extra downside risk to $35.2K. Put differently, the current level was at the halfway point of a typical bear-market pullback.
On quantum computing fears, which is one of the major catalysts cited by bear analysts, Bernstein said that it was not an immediate threat.
The analysts acknowledged quantum risk as a long-term threat, adding that all critical digital systems face similar risk and will transition to quantum-resistant upgrades together. This stance was similar to that of Grayscale and Strategy’s Michael Saylor.
Even so, Bitcoin was not out of the woods just yet. According to Glassnode, at the current $70K, the unrealized loss translates to 16% of the market cap, echoing an early bear-market structure for the 2022 cycle.
The loss hit 24% when BTC dropped to $60K, with Glassnode adding that,
“This places the market in an intense bear regime, though still below extreme capitulation phases seen above 50%, suggesting a capitulation process is underway.”
Bitfinex analysts, on the other hand, projected a sideways structure for BTC within the $60K and $74K price range for a while.
