BTC price may drop as low as $105,000 in the short term if key levels are lost.
Bitcoin (BTC) bulls were thwarted in an attempt to regain support at $110,000 on Thursday as US employment data exceeded expectations, dealing a blow to hopes of interest-rate cuts before September.
This is the third failed attempt since the May all-time high, casting doubt on Bitcoin’s ability to breach $110,000 and enter price discovery again.
Historically, multiple rejections near all-time highs have preceded sharp drops in BTC price.
For example, Bitcoin price was rejected multiple times from the $107,000 level in January, just 2% below the previous all-time high above $109,000 reached on Jan. 20. This preceded a 14% price drop over the two weeks that followed.
Related: Bitcoin bull run could peter out in 2-3 months, says analyst
Similarly, BTC price plunged 18% within 10 days following multiple rejections from the $72,000 resistance level, close to the earlier $73,800 record high of March 14, 2024.
If history repeats, the BTC/USD pair will drop 14-18% from current price levels.
Technical indicators like bearish divergences in the relative strength index, where the price makes higher highs but RSI forms lower highs, reinforce the resistance at $110,000.
Additionally, high-taker sell volume around $110,000 and neutral funding rates in futures markets point to profit-taking and hesitation among traders, increasing the likelihood of a pullback.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows Bitcoin price trading at $109,100, as $110,000 remains a key barrier. The BTC/USD pair needs to achieve a clear break above this level to end the multimonth consolidation.
Above that, there is a major supply zone stretching from $110,000 to $112,000, which the bulls must also overcome to get back into price discovery.
Conversely, the bears will attempt to defend the $110,000 resistance, increasing the likelihood of pulling the price lower.
A key area of interest lies between $17,500, where the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) currently sits, and $106,000, where the 100-day and 200-day SMAs appear to converge.
Another area of interest stretches from the local low at $105,200 (reached on July 2) to the $104,000 psychological level.
Pseudonymous trader KillaXBT points out that Bitcoin could see a deeper correction if it loses the support between $108,000 and $107,500. The trader also said that holding this area would see BTC rally to fresh all-time highs over the next few weeks.
“Hold = I TP my short and aim for a sweep of ATH this month.”
The BTC/USDT three-day liquidation heatmap shows the biggest liquidity cluster of $121 million, sitting just above $110,000, as per data from CoinGlass.
A short squeeze is therefore in play if the $110,000 level is broken, which could force short sellers to close positions and drive prices toward $114,000.
On the downside, heavy bid orders are sitting around $108,000, with the next significant cluster bands in place from $107,700 to $105,000.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
