Bitcoin is increasingly being viewed as a key safeguard against a potential U.S. financial crisis—alongside gold—and this perception is likely a major factor behind its current rally, according to an analyst.
The cryptocurrency recently hit a new all-time high, surpassing $121,000 on Monday. But according to Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x, the surge isn’t driven by hype. “This rally isn’t fueled by excitement—it’s driven by something much more fundamental,” he noted in a message shared with Cointelegraph.
Thielen explained that Bitcoin has evolved beyond its roots as a tech innovation and is now seen as a macroeconomic asset, specifically a hedge against U.S. fiscal mismanagement.
“The narrative has shifted entirely—there’s little talk of blockchain applications or Bitcoin’s technical potential anymore,” Thielen said. “Bitcoin has become a macro asset, a defense against rampant deficit spending.”
The U.S.’s $7 Trillion Fiscal Shift
In July, U.S. President Donald Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” (OBBBA) was passed, marking the largest single debt ceiling increase in American history with a $5 trillion boost.
While the bill originally promised to reduce the federal deficit by $2 trillion, it could instead add between $2.3 trillion and $5 trillion over the next decade—a potential $7 trillion swing from initial projections, according to Markus Thielen.
With deficit spending accelerating and monetary policy becoming more accommodative amid expected rate cuts, Thielen believes Bitcoin stands to be the “ultimate beneficiary” of this shifting macroeconomic landscape.
“This isn’t just another crypto rally,” Thielen said. “It’s a direct reaction to a U.S. fiscal situation that’s deteriorating much faster than anyone anticipated.”
“Alongside gold, Bitcoin is now positioned as the primary defense against a looming fiscal crisis — and that crisis is rapidly intensifying.”
Bitcoin price catalysts
The analyst also pointed to several upcoming events that could serve as key market catalysts.
Dubbed “Crypto Week” in Washington D.C., lawmakers are set to review critical legislation that could shape the future of the digital asset landscape. Three major bills are on the table: the CLARITY Act, aimed at establishing regulatory oversight for crypto markets; the GENIUS Act, which outlines a framework for stablecoins; and the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act.
Additionally, Trump’s Digital Asset Task Force is expected to release a comprehensive crypto policy report on July 22, which may include a proposal for a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is scheduled to meet on July 30. While rate cuts are widely anticipated, CME futures currently indicate a 93% chance that interest rates will remain unchanged.
Analysts Weigh In on Bitcoin’s New Record High
“As the U.S. prepares for Crypto Week and key legislative discussions, crypto continues to show resilience—even as stock markets face turbulence from geopolitical tensions and tariff concerns,” Eugene Cheung, chief commercial officer at crypto platform OSL, told Cointelegraph.
Cheung sees strong upside potential, projecting that Bitcoin could climb to between $130,000 and $150,000 by the end of the year.
“Bitcoin crossing $120,000 is more than just a milestone—it reflects how deeply digital assets have become integrated into institutional portfolios,” added Rachael Lucas, an analyst at Australian crypto exchange BTC Markets.
Meanwhile, Nick Ruck, research director at LVRG, noted that “Altcoins are likely to keep tracking Bitcoin’s momentum as traders diversify and take on more risk.”
