Key takeaways:
- Bitcoin options markets suggest slim chances of BTC hitting $84,000 in May, while a soft monthly futures basis points to underlying weakness.
- Meanwhile, heavy accumulation by publicly listed firms and growing spot Bitcoin ETF inflows are soaking up mining supply, limiting the effect of potential sell pressure.
Bitcoin (BTC) climbed back above $78,000, supported by a broader risk-on mood that also pushed the S&P 500 to a record high on Friday. Even with a 15% rally over the past month, options markets imply only a 25% chance of BTC surpassing $84,000 by the end of May.
While institutional demand in the spot market remains strong, derivatives traders continue to signal caution about further upside.
Bitcoin call options with a May 29 expiry and an $84,000 strike were priced at 0.0136 BTC (about $1,063). With 27 days remaining, this reflects an implied 25% probability that BTC will rise roughly 8% by the end of May. Meanwhile, put options have traded at a consistent premium over the past month, signaling stronger demand for downside protection.
The delta skew tracks the difference between put and call options, typically hovering between -6% and +6% in a balanced market. When professional traders avoid downside exposure, the metric rises above the 6% neutral mark—something that has persisted over the past month. A similar cautious pattern has also been observed in Bitcoin futures markets.
The monthly Bitcoin futures basis rate—typically trading at a 4% to 8% premium over spot to reflect capital costs—has weakened over the past 30 days. This softness suggests reduced appetite for leveraged bullish positions, likely influenced by Bitcoin’s 12% year-to-date decline in 2026.
Bitcoin accumulation by spot ETFs and listed companies
Despite cautious signals from derivatives markets regarding a move to $84,000, US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs present a more optimistic picture. These funds recorded $1.3 billion in net inflows in March and an additional $2 billion in April, pushing total net assets beyond $100 billion—a widely followed indicator of institutional demand.
Likewise, publicly listed companies have significantly expanded their Bitcoin holdings over the past 30 days. Notable additions include 56,235 BTC by Strategy (MSTR US), 5,075 BTC by Metaplanet (3350 JP), and 929 BTC by Strive (ASST US). Together, these purchases exceed roughly five months’ worth of future mining supply, effectively easing potential selling pressure.
Weak demand for bullish positioning in Bitcoin derivatives doesn’t necessarily rule out a move to $84,000 or higher by the end of May. If institutional buying remains strong, upward momentum is likely to persist.
