Bitcoin surged 10% from its yearly open around $87,500 before encountering resistance, but analysts say the price could still move higher if key supply levels are reclaimed and spot-market demand continues to grow.
Key takeaways:
- Bitcoin needs to clear resistance at $98,000 to set the stage for a move toward a six-figure price.
- Sustained spot demand and spot ETF inflows will be crucial for a breakout to $100,000.
BTC Price Must Break Resistance at $98,000
Since November 2025, Bitcoin’s rebounds have repeatedly stalled within the $93,000–$110,000 supply zone, marking the lower boundary of long-term holder (LTH) supply clusters, according to Glassnode’s Cost Basis Distribution Heatmap.
“This region has consistently acted as a transition barrier, separating corrective phases from durable bull regimes,” Glassnode noted in its latest Week On-Chain report, adding:
“With price once again pressing into this overhead supply, the market now faces a familiar test of resilience, where absorbing long-term holder distribution remains a prerequisite for any broader trend reversal.”
Bitcoin’s Bullish Case Depends on $98,300 Break
Bitcoin’s upside outlook hinges on breaking immediate resistance at $98,300, which marks the short-term holder (STH) supply basis.
This level reflects the average entry price of investors holding Bitcoin for less than 155 days and serves as a key measure of market confidence.
“Sustained trading above this threshold would indicate that new demand is absorbing overhead supply, allowing recent buyers to stay profitable,” Glassnode noted, adding:
“Historically, reclaiming and holding above the Short-Term Holder cost basis has marked the transition from corrective phases into more durable uptrends.”
Reclaiming $98,000 remains a crucial step for Bitcoin to restore confidence in the ongoing rally.
“It’s even possible we hit that $100K level this week,” MN Capital founder Michael van de Poppe said in a recent X analysis, adding:
“The trend is upwards.”
As Cointelegraph reported, holding above the daily order block between $90,000 and $92,000 would bolster the case for a sustained push toward $100,000 before month-end.
Bitcoin Bulls Need Strong Spot and ETF Demand
The prospect of Bitcoin surpassing $100,000 is supported by renewed spot-market demand and inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Recent data shows that Bitcoin’s spot activity is improving, with Binance and aggregate exchange cumulative volume delta (CVD) metrics returning to a buy-dominant regime. This indicates a shift away from persistent sell-side pressure, suggesting that traders are once again “absorbing supply rather than distributing into strength,” Glassnode noted, adding:
“The transition back into a net-buying posture across major venues represents a constructive structural shift.”
Meanwhile, spot Bitcoin ETFs are seeing renewed demand, posting inflows for three consecutive days totaling $1.7 billion, according to SoSoValue data.
Wednesday’s $843.6 million inflow was the largest since October 7, 2025, and marked the biggest single-day ETF inflows of 2026.
“Bitcoin’s price could go parabolic if ETF demand remains strong over the long term,” Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan said in an X post on Tuesday.
He added that just as gold surged 65% once its supply was fully absorbed, Bitcoin could experience a similar move, as ETFs are currently purchasing more BTC than is being newly minted.
“If ETF demand persists – and I think it will – eventually, sellers will run out of ammunition.”
