Bitcoin traders are dialing back their optimism as the odds of BTC reaching $150,000 before the 2026 halving have fallen to 36%, according to prediction market data from Kalshi. The drop signals a cooling in short-term bullish sentiment, even though confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term outlook remains strong.
Traders Reassess Bitcoin’s Next Move
Prediction markets often serve as a real-time gauge of investor sentiment. Kalshi’s latest figures show that only about one in three traders now expect Bitcoin to hit the $150,000 milestone before April 2026. While that’s still a meaningful level of optimism, it’s notably lower than the sentiment seen earlier this year when Bitcoin surged past $120,000, sparking hopes for an extended rally.
The mood across Bitcoin markets has shifted from euphoria to cautious recalibration. A chart shared by Whale Insider captures that swing — from volatility to a slow decline and now consolidation. Despite more than $13 million in contract volume on Kalshi, the tone has cooled, suggesting traders are active but hesitant about near-term highs.
On rival prediction platform Polymarket, odds for Bitcoin reaching $150,000 by March 2026 are even lower, hovering between 27% and 31%. Still, some analysts argue the decline in odds isn’t necessarily bearish. “When Kalshi odds cool off, it’s recalibration,” one analyst told X. “Traders are basically saying: still bullish, just less certain.”
Bitcoin ETFs See Outflows as Sentiment Softens
Fresh data from SoSoValue shows a $186.5 million net outflow from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs on November 3, trimming total assets under management to $143.51 billion — about 6.75% of Bitcoin’s market cap. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) accounted for the entire outflow, while other major funds like Fidelity’s FBTC and Ark’s ARKB were unchanged.
Despite the recent pullback, cumulative inflows across all U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs remain strong at over $61 billion. The data suggests institutions haven’t exited the space — they’re simply taking profits or waiting for clearer macro signals before increasing exposure. Trading volumes for Fidelity, Grayscale, and Ark stayed in the hundreds of millions, even as daily prices slipped about 2.9%. The synchronized drop across funds mirrored Bitcoin’s broader correction to around $107,600 after October’s decline.
Macro Signals Point to a Cooling Phase
According to research from Cointel, macro trends indicate a temporary pause before Bitcoin’s next major move. The platform noted rising global liquidity paired with flat BTC prices, implying that Bitcoin may still be undervalued relative to stablecoins. Cointel also highlighted that roughly $3.4 trillion has exited gold markets this year — a sum equal to the combined market caps of Bitcoin, Ethereum, Binance Coin, Solana, and XRP. Analysts believe some of that capital could eventually flow into crypto as investors seek alternative hedges.
Meanwhile, global events such as the upcoming U.S.–China summit and patterns from recent FOMC meetings suggest more short-term volatility ahead. Analysts expect minor dips before Bitcoin attempts a new all-time high.
Traders Stay Cautious but Optimistic
Market analyst JV Trades said he remains cautious, holding short positions from $124K and $113K until the higher-time-frame trend turns bullish again. He identified key resistance zones at $108,300 and $112,000, which could determine whether Bitcoin breaks lower or rebounds.
Overall, prediction markets and ETF flows both reflect a measured, wait-and-see attitude. Bitcoin’s long-term fundamentals remain strong, but traders appear content to let the market reset before making their next major move. As one trader on X summed it up:
“Everyone turns bearish right before the market embarrasses them. Keep fading Bitcoin — it loves proving people wrong.”
