Bitcoin’s next major catalyst could come from overturning a widely held belief: that falling interest rates are the only rate environment bullish for Bitcoin, according to a crypto analyst.
“We should be prepared for the possibility that more accommodative policies may not actually be the catalyst that pushes Bitcoin into a bull market,” said Jeff Park, chief investment officer at ProCap Financial, in an interview with Anthony Pompliano on Thursday.
“We have to accept that reality,” Park added. Accommodative policies—such as interest rate cuts—are typically used by the US Federal Reserve to stimulate economic growth, lower unemployment, and increase liquidity. Bitcoin investors have traditionally viewed these conditions as favorable for risk-on assets like Bitcoin, as yields on conventional investments such as bonds and term deposits become less appealing.
Rising interest rates are typically viewed as a headwind for Bitcoin, but Park argued that this relationship may not hold indefinitely. He said Bitcoin’s next major upside catalyst — and possibly its “endgame” — could be a scenario in which the asset continues to rise even as US Federal Reserve interest rates increase, a phase he described as a “positive-rate Bitcoin.”
Park called this scenario the “perfect holy grail” for Bitcoin. “It’s the mythical, elusive outcome Bitcoin is meant to achieve — where Bitcoin rises alongside interest rates, which runs completely counter to the quantitative easing narrative,” he said.
However, Park noted that such a shift would fundamentally challenge the concept of the risk-free rate itself. In that environment, he argued, traditional assumptions break down: “The risk-free rate is no longer truly risk-free, the dollar’s hegemony is no longer absolute, and the yield curve can’t be priced the way it has been historically.”
Park added that the broader monetary system is “broken,” pointing to a dysfunctional relationship between the US Federal Reserve and the Treasury that, in his view, no longer effectively guides the pricing of government securities.
Meanwhile, traders on the crypto prediction platform Polymarket assign a 27% probability to three Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts in 2026.
At the time of publication, Bitcoin was trading at $70,503, down 22.53% over the past 30 days, according to CoinMarketCap.
