Bitcoin’s current rally may still have some fuel left, but its long-term cycle appears to be entering its final stretch, according to analyst Joao Wedson.
In his latest market breakdown, Wedson suggested the leading cryptocurrency could continue rising for another two months, while altcoins might see upward momentum for roughly three more months before a broader cooldown sets in.
He pointed out that despite the growing role of exchange-traded funds in the market, a significant portion of selling pressure is still coming from long-term holders. In fact, Wedson noted that half of all Bitcoin held within ETFs has been offloaded by these early investors.
This, he argued, means that ETFs, miners, or isolated market groups cannot be relied upon as the sole driving forces — large, established holders and major exchanges still wield the most influence.
Wedson’s outlook drew on multiple on-chain metrics. He cited a notable rise in the movement of older BTC over the past two years, which has coincided with three local market peaks. The Reserve Risk indicator, a tool for assessing long-term holder sentiment, has recently flashed a warning of increased selling. Meanwhile, the SOPR trend signal — which tracks profit-taking and loss realization across the blockchain — turned bearish weeks ago, foreshadowing the latest pullback.
While these readings point to a maturing cycle, Wedson stressed that the market’s overall structure remains intact and that the presence of ETFs has not altered Bitcoin’s long-term rhythm.
